The Climate Change Authority report that some suspected was buried by the Australian government to save it from policy embarrassment during the election campaign, could now make it easier for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull to find the middle ground in a minority government, or one ruling with a razor-thin majority.
The CCA report had been expected to be released in late June, but was delayed until after the election, to the obvious relief of the government. So, too, was a report on options for the electricity sector, which had been due for release in April or May, and which leaked reports suggest strongly supported some form of mandatory carbon price.
Those reports by the CCA, despite its board being stacked by Turnbull government appointees following the resignation of former chairman Bernie Fraser and other directors, would not have suited the Coalition election platform.
They were expected to reaffirm the position that Australia was trailing the world in emission reductions, needed to do more, and would need to adopt a carbon price. And, they would likely note, this would not be anywhere near as expensive as many suggest.
That, of course, would not have helped the Coalition election platform, which was to continue with its much criticised Direct Action program, and to lambast any proposals by Labor and the Greens for an economy-wide carbon price and higher renewable energy targets.
But if prime minister Turnbull is to survive as head of a government with a razor-thin majority, or as head of a minority government, he may have no choice but to shake the shackles of the Far Right and to shift towards the centre.
As Mark Kenny writes in Fairfax Media, “taking his government further to the centre is about the only clear mandate he (Turnbull) is left with.” It is obvious to most – particularly in light of the ferocious response of the Far Right to the election result – that he has no choice.
Even former leader John Howard recognised this on Tuesday, noting that Liberals represented not just conservatives, but “small l” liberals. It was a deliberate intervention to warn the “del-cons” as they like to be known, to back off.
It was hoped in policy circles that Turnbull might have used the planned review of climate and clean energy policies in 2017 to start to shift towards a more realistic policy – one that not only accepted the science but also recognised the massive opportunities in leading a shift to a clean energy economy.
The CCA reports are now likely to be released in a few weeks, once the dust has settled on the election result. Their findings, rather than being ignored as they were in the past (when pushing for a minimum 45 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 and rejecting calls for a cut to the renewable energy target), could be welcomed by the government and used to engage business on formulating a new policy.
Indeed, they could lay the foundations of a much-needed bipartisan approach to climate policy. Labor’s policy for an emissions price based loosely round a “baseline and credit” scheme is seen as similar to that which would naturally evolve from Direct Action, and its so-called Safeguard mechanism.
It’s just that the Coalition couldn’t allow itself to say so ahead of the election. But it could seize upon the CCA report, which is likely to recommend a similar path (seeing it has the architect of Direct Action as one of its new board members) to start to change its conversation about climate policies.
To add to the delicious intrigue, Nick Xenophon, whose party will hold one and possibly two lower house seats, and whose support will be crucial in the Senate, is also a supporter of the baseline and credit scheme.
As we suggested on Monday, the very prospect of a move to the centre has caused panic in the Far Right, pro-Abbott faction, prompting calls for Turnbull’s resignation and an immediate meeting of the Liberal Party MPs, even though it is not entirely clear who is in and who is out.
Far Right faction leader Corey Bernardi – anonymous during the campaign – has put Turnbull “on notice” in repeated media appearances since voting finished.
Senator Eric Abetz, another Far Right fiction leader demoted by Turnbull, has chastised his leader for not playing the carbon tax scare campaign hard enough.
Interestingly, former Tasmania premier Robin Gray called on Abetz to step aside. “I’ve often said to people every time he goes on television he loses us 1000 votes,” he told the Examiner newspaper.
But there could be more to come. Peta Credlin, Abbott’s chief of staff, warned on the Bolt Report on Monday that “If they think that I’ve tried to settle scores, well they ain’t seen anything yet.”
But the polling, both at the election itself and by private pollsters during the campaign, points to a major shift in public thinking. Yes Pauline Hanson and her running mate, the head of climate denier propaganda website Galileo Movement, got elected, but the overall majority favour more ambitious climate and clean energy policies.
Even among Coalition supporters, the mood has shifted, which should have been obvious the day that the Liberal Party chose to dump Tony Abbott.
Business now understands the importance of a meaningful policy, and of the opportunities that could be missed without government support. And unlike 2010, when the Far Right took hold of the climate debate and scared Kevin Rudd away from his own carbon pricing plan, technology costs have fallen dramatically.
It’s not a matter of if, but when, Australia effects its own energy transition. And business is just salivating over the opportunities behind solar, battery storage and electric vehicles. Or at least they should be.
