World on track to triple renewables based on government policies, but not according to climate pledges

The global climate goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is within reach, a major new report has found, with the existing government policies of 150 countries – including Australia – promising to add a combined nearly 8,000 GW of new renewables by the end of the decade.

The International Energy Agency report, COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge, tracks the progress of countries in meeting their Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, under the Paris Climate Act – a global agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 °C.

For most countries, these climate pledges centre on emissions reduction targets. But as the IEA notes, renewable energy is at the heart of achieving these goals, and very few countries have explicitly laid out 2030 targets for installed capacity in their existing NDCs.

This is a concern, because going by NDCs alone, these same 150 countries have collectively pledged to add 1,300 gigawatts (GW), or just 12% of what is required to meet the 2030 global tripling objective set in Dubai.

But if countries included all their existing policies, plans and estimates in their new NDCs due next year – which will include revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035 – they would reflect 70% of what is needed by 2030 to reach the tripling goal, which corresponds to 11 000 GW of installed renewable capacity globally.

And this is what the IEA is hoping most countries will do. For Australia, whose NDC pledges a fairly low-ball reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, this would mean realigning its ambition to the current federal renewables target of 82 per cent by 2030.

According to the IEA report, Australia ranks as having the third strongest renewable energy ambition in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China), at 98GW by 2030, behind India and Japan.

Of course, this would change dramatically if the Coalition’s nuclear plans were put in motion.

As it is, the IEA notes that Australia has delivered slower capacity growth over the past year than in the previous five years.

Along with Japan and Viet Nam, it says Australia has “recently added considerable renewable capacity” to its grid, mainly solar PV. “So their focus has switched largely to system integration and other renewable technologies such as wind.”

For some perspective, it is worth noting that China’s goal of 1,200 GW of solar PV and wind capacity this decade accounts for over 90% of all renewable capacity mentioned in NDCs.

“China has not yet published an explicit 2030 target for total renewable capacity,” the IEA report says. “However, the country is expected to surpass its 2030 target of 1 200 GW of solar PV and wind this year.

“IEA estimates taking into account the most recent deployment trends indicate that capacity in China in 2030 is set to be 2.5 times its 2022 level.”

IEA exectuive director Fatih Birol says what the new report makes clear is that the tripling renewables target is ambitious but achievable – if governments can quickly turn promises into plans of action.

“By delivering on the goals agreed at COP28 – including tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – countries worldwide have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable energy system,” Birol says.

“The IEA will continue to support governments around the world in efforts to achieve this.”

Katye Altieri, analyst at global energy think tank Ember says the latest year of record renewables growth should give leaders confidence to upgrade their targets further in their NDCs.

“Many countries are showing how fast this can be achieved. China is on track to smash its existing targets, putting it on track for a 2.5 increase by 2030. Brazil and Chile have major plans to step up solar and wind capacity, with Chile planning to increase renewables by a factor of 2.5. Germany plans to increase renewables by 2.4 times and joins Spain in the top three leaders worldwide for plans to expand wind power.

“Solar and wind provide three-quarters of global growth, as they have proven their ability to scale rapidly to provide cheap, secure and clean energy,” Altieri adds.

“The next round of updated NDCs provides a big opportunity to solidify, and more importantly, increase existing 2030 renewable capacity ambitions to meet the global tripling goal.”