“We’re not predicting blackouts:” AEMO boss says storm response builds confidence in green transition

The head of the Australian Energy Market Operator has insisted that the organisation is not forecasting blackouts in the future – as many in the media insist it is doing – and is in fact even more confident of a successful energy transition after seeing the response to several major events over summer.

AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman opened the Australian Energy Week conference in Melbourne on Wednesday by pointing to some of the significant events that had occurred over the summer, including storms that blew down power lines in Victoria and Western Australia, and a burst gas pipeline in Queensland.

The biggest event was in Victoria, where the collapse of six transmission towers caused one third of Victoria’s online generation to disconnect immediately, including all four units of Victoria’s largest power station, Loy Yang A.

“Our control room staff were able to reconfigure the power system to deal with that catastrophic condition — two 500kV circuits down and the complete loss of Victoria’s largest power station,” Westerman said.

“The bulk power system coped remarkably well, with Victoria’s interconnectors immediately drawing power from reserves in neighbouring states.”

This, along with the other events and the massive heatwaves that set many new demand records, underlined the fact that storms, heatwaves and unexpected events “are a fact of life”, and that there is never a dull day in the AEMO control room.

“But third and most importantly, that the way our industry responds to these events, with speed, collaboration and a laser-like focus on the interests of energy consumers, shows that as an industry, we’re absolutely capable of dealing with the challenges of this energy transition,” he said.

Westerman’s comments come as the federal Coalition and much of mainstream media continues to pile in on the federal government’s 82 per cent renewable energy target, warning of the lights going out and industries being destroyed.

The campaign against renewables has also focused on key institutions such as AEMO and the CSIRO, along with key reports they have produced such as the Integrated System Plan (ISP), and the GenCost report, both of which underline that renewables and storage are the cheapest and most effective way to replace ageing and dirty coal.

Westerman also noted that AEMO’s 1-year demand and supply forecast report, the Electricity Statement of Opportunities, had been misunderstood and misreported.

“These reports are not predictions, and they are not forecasts of blackouts,” Westerman said.

“These reports are a clear signal to investors that sustained and ongoing investment in generation, storage and transmission is needed to ensure that Australian energy consumers continue to have access to reliable energy.

“They highlight some of the challenges in the transition, like delays in storage and transmission projects, and that old generators don’t last forever. But they also highlight progress.”

That progress included 4.6 GW of new wind, battery, solar, pumped hydro and gas projects that had been included in the last year, and big improvements had been made to the grid connection process, often cited as a major source of delay in the system.

“We estimate that over 200 weeks of delays have been avoided. That’s an average of two months of avoided delay per project,” Westerman said. And projects that commenced commissioning during this program achieved full output in less than half the time compared to the historical norm.”

He said the final version of the 2024 ISP due to be released in the next few weeks will incorporate more information on consumer energy resources, gas infrastructure and locational information on where best to allocate capital for new projects.

Westerman said consumer-owned resources such as rooftop solar, household batteries and electric vehicles are a “transformative force” in the energy transition, and will be an indispensable part of the future energy system.

“There are already 3.8 million rooftop solar systems installed across Australia. Their combined capacity is now larger than the capacity of the remaining coal generation fleet. Almost 100,000 have batteries installed, too.

“If these consumer owned devices are enabled and encouraged to participate in the broader energy system, it will result in a significantly lower-cost energy system for everyone.

“And without some level of co-ordination, large flows of power back into the main power system can cause significant issues for reliability and security of the main grid.

“Technical trials have clearly demonstrated the value created by some co-ordination of these consumer devices, and business models already exist to share that value with the owner of those assets. Ultimately, it’s consumers who own these devices who will decide on how they’re used.”