“Truly mind-blowing:” Scientists fear strongest El Nino will push climate into unchartered waters

Climate scientists say they have never seen anything like it – a Super El Nino that is bigger and growing more quickly than any prior events.

“With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Nino event since records began in the late 1800s – and by a truly mind-blowing margin,” says climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.

“The median estimate (for anomalies in sea surface temperatures) is now 3.6°C, roughly 0.8°C hotter than the prior record (of 2.75°C).”

Hausfather, who appeared in an episode of Renew Economy’s weekly Energy Insiders podcast last year, says 2026/27 El Nino event that the world is currently witnessing is growing faster than any prior events.

What does this mean? No one is too sure. As Hausfather notes, the models have never been verified in this territory because none has ever happened.

“We are both figuratively and literally in uncharted waters,” he writes on Climate Brink. “For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Nino of the past 150 years is only about 0.5°C. The models are forecasting something outside of the envelope of anything we have ever observed.

“What is remarkable here is not just the level but the trajectory. The 2026 is developing faster than 1997-98, the previous gold standard for explosive El Nino onsets.

“And unlike 2015 which started its year already warm from a precursor event, this one launched from genuinely La Nine-ish conditions in January. No prior year … has been anywhere near this warm this early.

Hausfather says that because global temperature lags by around three to five months, most of this El Nino events warming will land in 2027, which he says is shaping up to be a “genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizeable margin.”

But he cautions that the strength and speed of the El Nino could mean some impacts are felt in late 2026, which could still emerge as the warmest year on record.

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