Record year for rooftop solar growth? October installation data bodes well

Nationwide rooftop solar installations charted an 11 per cent jump in October, the latest monthly data has shown, putting 2023 volumes “well ahead” of the numbers this time last year and on track for a record year of small-scale PV growth.

The latest numbers from industry analysts SunWiz shows a total of 289MW of solar panels were installed on rooftops across Australia in October, compared to 261MW in September – an increase of 28MW.

SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston says that this puts the market year-to-date figures 17% ahead of the volumes seen in October 2022 and suggests we might set a new annual record in 2023.

The record to beat was set in 2021, when Australia’s rooftop solar sector charted its fifth-straight year of record-breaking growth to sail past the 3GW milestone for the first time and add 400,000 new systems totalling 3.3GW of new capacity.

Last year, however, the market slowed, adding around 290,000 new rooftop installations with a total capacity of 2.51GW.

Johnston says that while the lower ends of the residential market – that is, systems sized smaller than 10kW – are trending down in 2023, this is being balanced out by volume growth in the 10-15kW range.

This has meant another record month for average system size, with a new high of 9.61kW for October – but Johnston says this is mainly due to elevated volumes in commercial-scale rooftop installs.

On system sizes, the data shows that installations in the 10-15kW range continue to gain further traction over the 6-8kW range.

And on a state-by-state basis, SunWiz data shows that Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria were the main drivers of growth for the month – see chart below.