New Year begins with more solar records, as PV takes bigger bite out of coal’s holiday lunch

As 2025 begins, Victoria is already making its mark on the energy landscape with a series of notable demand and rooftop PV share records.

These milestones highlight the growing impact of distributed rooftop pv generation and the ongoing transformation of energy demand profiles, particularly during the holiday season.

Victorian Records Set on Wed 01 Jan 2025:

1. Minimum Operational Demand: 1,504.0 MW at 12:30 hrs, breaking the previous record of 1,564.0 MW set on Sun 31 Dec 2023 at 13:00 hrs, a drop of 60 MW (3.8%).

2. Minimum Total Demand: 1,400.1 MW at 12:10 hrs, down 56.27 MW (3.9%) from the previous record of 1,456.4 MW at 13:00 hrs Sun 31 Dec 2023.

3. Minimum Total Demand + Non-Scheduled Generation: 1,536.3 MW at 12:10 hrs, a reduction of 22.65 MW (1.5%) from the prior record of 1,559.0 MW at 13:00 hrs Sun 31 Dec 2023.

4. Maximum Rooftop PV Share: Rooftop PV supplied 69.6% of demand at 12:10 hrs, up 1.85 percentage points from the previous record of 67.8% set on Sun 08 Dec 2024 at 12:15 hrs.

Observations and Insights:

1. Rooftop Solar Dominance: Rooftop PV’s record-breaking contribution of 69.6% demonstrates how distributed solar is becoming a cornerstone of Victoria’s energy mix, significantly offsetting grid demand during midday hours. This surge in rooftop PV underscores the decentralisation of power generation and its implications for grid management.

2. Demand Dynamics Shift: The record low for operational and total demand reflects the “hollowing out” effect caused by increasing rooftop solar output during peak sunlight hours. As distributed generation grows, minimum demand levels are dropping earlier in the year and to lower thresholds than ever before.

3. Challenges in Grid Management: As rooftop PV transforms demand profiles, maintaining grid stability requires coordinated efforts. Innovative solutions such as storage expansion, dynamic demand response programs, and virtual power plants (VPPs) will be crucial. These strategies can reduce reliance on last-resort mechanisms like solar cutoffs and enhance renewable integration.

4. A Consultative Approach: The records also emphasise the importance of collaboration between grid operators, policymakers, and consumers to manage growing minimum system load (MSL) challenges. Developing a national framework through consultative processes can support consistent and effective solutions across Australia.

Looking Ahead:

These records demonstrate the immense potential of solar energy while highlighting the need to address variability and curtailment. Investments in storage, smart grid technologies, and flexible demand programs will be essential to ensure grid stability and maximise renewable utilisation.