Rooftop solar PV gorilla roars again, meets all demand in one state in holiday peak

As 2023 wrapped up, the last day of the year saw some new records achieved in Australia’s energy transition, particularly in Victoria and South Australia, where rooftop PV met all the state demand at one stage.

Here’s a quick rundown of notable records, perfect for some light holiday reading!

– Victoria Rooftop PV Share Hit 65.8% – On Sun 31-12-2023 at 12:30 hrs, Victoria achieved a maximum rooftop PV share of 65.8% (see attached graph), up from 61.5% on Sun 17-12-2023 at 12:40 hrs.

This 4.31% increase highlights the growing impact of rooftop pv in the region. For most of the day while rooftop PVwas powering, utility solar and wind had to step out of the market when the Vic Region Reference price fell to below zero from 06:00 hrs to 18:15 hrs (AEST) averaging  minus $170/MWh for the period, and sitting at minus $400/MWh from 11:00 to 14:30. That makes the rooftop pv feed-in tariffs appear very generous.

– South Australia’s Rooftop PV Exceeds 100% – Another record moment for SA – at 12:30 hrs on Sun 31-12-2023, the rooftop PV share soared to 101.8%, a slight increase from 101.1% on Sat 23-09-2023 at 13:55 hrs. This is the second instance where SA’s rooftop PV met the entire region’s demand.

– Minimum Operational Demands – Both Vic and SA witnessed their minimum operational demands due to cool, sunny days following a mild week – a prime setting for solar power.

Vic’s demand dropped to 1,564.0 MW on Sun 31-12-2023 at 13:00 hrs, down from 1,915.0 MW on Sun 29-10-2023. In SA, demand went as low as -26.0 MW on Sun 31-12-2023 at 13:30 hrs, a decrease from 5.0 MW on Sun 01-10-2023.

– Vic’s Solar Curtailment Peaks – Interestingly, as noted above, Vic experienced a maximum solar curtailment of 902.6 MW on Sun 31-12-2023 at 13:40 hrs, a rise from 878.7 MW on Sun 24-12-2023.

AEMO’s Market Notice

In light of these developments, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a market notice for the Victorian region, seeking a response (more demand, or possible shutting down of some rooftop solar) to the elevated risk of insufficient demand from 1100 hrs to 1400 hrs on 31/12/2023.

As we head into 2024, these records not only underscore the growing significance of renewable energy but also highlight the need for balancing supply and demand in our power systems.

Geoff Eldridge is an analyst with GPE NEMLog.