New wind and solar may struggle in Sunshine state as LNP right wing lays ground for nuclear backflip

Queensland looks set to retain its title as the country’s most coal dependent grid – and now it might not even be close – after the LNP were returned to power on the weekend with a promise to repeal the state’s renewable energy target, and keep coal fired power stations burning fossil fuels for as long as they can.

The right wing of the Queensland LNP is also laying the groundwork for a backflip on the party leader’s declared opposition to nuclear power. New premier David Crisafulli insisted during the election campaign that the state LNP – unlike its federal counterpart – opposed nuclear power.

But, within two hours of the polls closing on Saturday, that position was undermined when likely state treasurer David Janetzki – a nuclear advocate – said the choice of nuclear is a “matter for the federal government”.

That position was echoed by Amanda Stoker, the right wing former LNP Senator parachuted into a safe state seat, who said there were “no plans” for nuclear, but wouldn’t rule it out if there was a change of government in Canberra. Like Janetzki and others in the state LNP, Stoker is a strong advocate of nuclear power.

Having a compliant state government could be crucial for federal Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s hopes of extending his nuclear distraction should he get elected in the federal election due around May next year. Dutton wants reactors built at two sites in Queensland. Of course, if Labor wins the next federal election, then the idea will go nowhere.

However, the short term direction of energy policy in Queensland is anyone’s guess. It is not even clear who the energy minister will be. Former party leader Deb Frecklington has been energy spokesman but has been holding three shadow portfolios, which may be pruned to one or two when the ministries are announced later this week.

The Labor government they replace included the most overtly climate-focused premier in the country in Steven Miles, and a highly visible and effective energy minister in Mick de Brenni.

Coalition state governments don’t always mean a strict anti-renewable regime – witness the strong efforts on renewables by the NSW and South Australia Liberal governments – but the experience in Victoria and federally was a daunting one for the industry.

Crisafulli has promised to repeal the target of 50 per cent renewables by 2030, 70 per cent renewables by 2032, and 80 per cent by 2035, and clearly does not favour wind power.

The state currently has the biggest share of coal in its grid, an average 66 per cent over the last 1`2 months. Callide B is the next coal fired power station due to close in 2028, and others like Stanwell were predicted to also close around that time.

Crisafulli says he wants to keep them burning coal “indefinitely” and has said that the renewable targets will be ditched because there is no credible path to get there. But it will likely to get to 50 per cent by 2030 anyway – Labor made sure that much at least was locked in before leaving power.

The state currently has 3 gigawatts of large scale solar, and another 1 GW under construction.

It has just 1 GW of wind, but that will more than double as the 923 MW MacIntyre and the 400 MW Clarke Creek wind projects work their way through commissioning, and there is another 1 GW of wind capacity under construction, including the Lotus Creek, Boulder Creek and Wambo projects, according to Renew Map.

Those large scale wind and solar projects alone – along with the continued uptake of rooftop solar by homes and businesses – will take the state close to its 2030 renewable target of 50 per cent renewables.

The question of how much more renewables will be developed – given the growing portfolios owned by state generators Stanwell, CS Energy and CleanCo, and the huge amounts of capacity in the private development pipeline – remains to be seen.

The phenomenal scale of this pipeline is represented in these tables by Rystad Energy – nearly 60 gigawatts of wind and solar and more than 20 GW of battery storage. Will the LNP government really walk away from all this?

It should not be forgotten that industrial customers want this too. Rio Tinto says it wants to power its smelters and refineries with wind and solar – and it has already signed MoUs for two gigawatt scale wind and solar farms.

Crisafulli also says the LNP is sticking to the newly legislated target of a 75 per cent cut in emissions by 2035, but it is difficult to see how he can possibly achieve that without a much bigger share of renewables, and given that nuclear could not possibly be built by 2035.

And while the Katter Party, also triumphant with at least three seats in the new parliament, is another avowed supporter of nuclear power, it is also a big supporter of the Copperstring 2.0 transmission line from Townsville to Mt Isa, which will unlock not just big mining reserves but also huge renewable projects, both wind and solar.

The Katters have a close interest. As the AFR has reported, Bob Katter is the uncle of Copperstring proponent Joe O’Brien. O’Brien’s father, John O’Brien, is married to Katter’s sister, Geraldine. CopperString, the AFR noted, is a family affair.

Crisafulli has already had one change of mind. The LNP had said – accusing Labor of a “hydro hoax” – that they would dump the massive pumped hydro projects at Pioneer and Borumba, given that the costs were blowing out even more than the ill-fated Snowy 2.0 and were already at a combined $30 billion and climbing.

But it appears to have already changed its mind on the slightly smaller Borumba, which it thinks it can do at a lower cost than modelled by Labor.

Abandoning Pioneer is probably a good thing, and the LNP says it will instead turn to smaller pumped hydro projects, like the Kidston facility that is being built by the now Japanese owned Genex. Stanwell, for instance, has just announced a new 400 MW, 4,000 MWh pumped hydro project near Toowoomba.

“I think it’s going to be interesting,” says Dave Copeman, the head of the Queensland Conservation Council, says of the new government

“I think their pivot on coal should be read politically, not as a hard line. They needed a “dead cat” on the abortion issue, and this was it.”

Copeman says the LNP has to produce a plan for the emissions target, and there will be a debate within the LNP – between the right wing and moderates – about how that was done. He says Borumba and other smaller hydro will likely be built, as will Copperstring 2.0, and then wind and solar will be built.

“There is a risk of delay. There is uncertainty,” he says, noting that Crisafulli did rule out nuclear again on morning radio on Monday.

In short, it will be another battle between right and left, this time within the same party.