Know your NEM: Victoria futures price jumps on talk of Hazelwood

• Volumes : Were basically flat on last year for the week  ended September 23. NSW was down a touch but QLD and Sth Aust were up. Despite the growth in QLD it looks like NEM wide volumes this year will be up about 1%.
• Future prices:. Were largely unchanged except surprise, surprise, in Victoria where they jumped 5%.
• Spot electricity prices. Little change on last year
• REC prices were unchanged
• Gas prices : were lower than last  year in Qld and NSW but still up in South Australia
• Utility share prices: Most utility shares did well this week as did the broader market. There was no  great company news although Ausnet made a presentation in Singapore that we are going to have a separate look at.
• Industry news. The key news this week was obviously the giving of a date, April 2017, although not yet confirmed for the Hazelwood closure.

 

Figure 1: Summary

Share Prices

Figure 2: Summary share price movements

 

Figure 4: Weekly and monthly share price performance

Volumes

Figure 5: electricity volumes

Base Load Futures

Figure 10: Baseload futures financial year time weighted average

Gas Prices

Figure 11: STTM gas prices

David Leitch is principal of ITK. He was  formerly a Utility Analyst for leading investment banks over the past 30 years. The views expressed are his own. Please note our new section, Energy Markets, which will include analysis from Leitch on the energy markets and broader energy issues. And also note our live generation widget, and the APVI solar contribution.