Home battery numbers shrink for the first time since rebate launch, as installers take a beat

Australia’s booming home battery market did not grow, but shrank, in January 2026, new data has revealed, marking the first time this has happened since the introduction of the Cheaper Home Batteries rebate in July 2025.

According to the latest data from industry analyst SunWiz, small-scale battery registrations totalled 983 megawatt-hours in the first month of the new year, down from nearly 1.2 gigawatt-hours in December.

SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston says the 17 per cent decline is likely due to installers taking a well-earned rest over the Summer holiday, rather than any sort of die-back in demand.

Source: SunWiz

As the Clean Energy Council report last week confirmed, the federal battery rebate has “strapped a rocket” to demand, and that doesn’t look like calming down any time soon – particularly with changes to the rebate due to kick in in May.

Nevertheless, markets in nearly every state contracted by more than 20 per cent in January, according to Sunwiz, with Victoria being the only state to buck the trend with a barely perceptible 3 per cent increase in registered home battery systems.

Source: SunWiz

All told, small-scale battery registrations reached 983 megawatt-hours in January 2026, again falling below the 1 gigawatt-hour mark, but still staying very strong, Johnston says.

As for the battery size households are installing through the rebate, SunWiz reports no decline there. The average battery system size continues to grow, reaching 35.64 kWh (kilowatt-hours) in January.

Rooftop solar numbers, meanwhile, took their customary January holiday, with a total of 244 megawatts of rooftop solar PV registered in January, a 32 per cent decline on December numbers.

Source: SunWiz

Johnston says that while that sharp drop looks dramatic, it follows a “strong finish” to 2025, including four months of growth to round it out. It’s also typical of January – and almost identical to the numbers from same month in 2025.

Source: SunWiz

Commercial solar installations, in particular, look to be on holiday, with the 50–70 kilowatt (kW) market segment reporting the strongest decline, at 57 per cent, while residential installs fell by 24 per cent, month on month.