Global solar and wind generation will soon overtake nuclear and hydro

Over the past decade, global solar generation has grown ninefold to reach 1500 Terawatt-hour (TWh) per year while wind generation has tripled to 2300 TWh per year (Figure 1).

This corresponds to compound growth rates of 22% and 11% per year respectively. In contrast, hydro, nuclear and coal generation had growth rates of about 1% per year, and gas 3%. 

Figure 1: Global low-emissions annual electricity generation (Ember, WNA)

The solar growth rate of 22% per year is equivalent to doubling every three years. At this growth rate, solar generation will reach 100,000 TWh per year in 2042 which is enough to fully decarbonize the global economy. 

Solar generation (TWh per year) is tracking to surpass nuclear generation in 2026, wind in 2027, hydro in 2028, gas in 2030 and coal in 2032.

The leading countries for per capita solar and wind generation are all in Europe, except Australia (Figure 2). Also shown in Figure 2 is global per capita generation from hydro and nuclear. 

Figure 2: Solar and wind electricity generation per person (Ember, WNA)

Unlike in Europe, Australia cannot share electricity across national boundaries to reduce the effects of variable weather and demand. Australia must go it alone by deploying enough storage, transmission and demand management. 

Assuming that the government target of 82% renewables in 2030 is met, then over the decade 2020 to 2030 fossil generation falls from 75% to 18%, while solar and wind generation does the opposite, rising from 19% to 75% (plus 7% from hydro, Figure 3).

Figure 3: The Australian electricity transition 

Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National University