Forecast for drier, scorching, international relationships

Australia once led the world on emissions trading and renewable energy targets. That was in the early 2000’s when NSW had one of the world’s first emissions trading schemes and the Renewable Energy Target was one of the world’s first national renewable energy schemes.

The agreement between the US & China this week shows all too clearly just how far behind we’ve fallen on climate action. As we’ve been busily trying to keep climate change off the G20 agenda and talking up the future of coal, others have been getting on with the job of real action.

The timing of the announcement that the US and China have reached a historic agreement to cut emissions, just days before the G20, speaks volumes. Make no mistake that this agreement is a momentous one, particularly when its impact on Australia is considered.China and the US are the two biggest polluters on the planet. Australia is up there when it comes to per-capita emissions, but the sheer size of those two economies mean that, together, they’re responsible for about 40 per cent of global greenhouse gas pollution.

The US has just agreed to reduce their contribution by 25 per cent by 2030. Australia’s 5 per cent by 2020 is beginning to look a little limp. Sure, our target could be 25 per cent by 2020, but only if “the world agrees to an ambitious global deal capable of stabilising levels of GHGs in the atmosphere at 450 ppm (parts per million) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) or lower”That condition could well be met following this week’s agreement.

One of the reasons leant far too heavily on for Australia’s inaction is the idea that the rest of the world isn’t acting. We’ve conveniently ignored the EU, and even the shift to renewable energy in developing countries like China and India. This agreement shows the unwinding of climate policy here to be in stark contrast with the direction of the rest of the world.

If China, a developing country that’s had an unhealthy appetite for coal can hit peak carbon pollution by 2030, what’s our excuse?

Which brings us to coal. Coal, which our Prime Minister says is ‘good for humanity’ while Beijing bans it from the city because of the appalling air pollution it’s caused.

China is simply not going to want our coal anymore. Not with a 20 per cent clean energy target and an appetite for clean air. In fact, China’s clean energy target for 2030 is sixteen times Australia’s total installed capacity in 2014, clean and dirty.

So as Australia gets down to work on destroying natural wilderness areas to access more fossil fuels, the markets are turning their backs on us. Come 2030, or sooner, it’s feasible that Australia will be left with some very large and expensive stranded assets and an even more powerful reputation for stalling on international agreements.

The willingness of other countries to go behind our back to get the agreements they need should be a wake-up call that if Australia doesn’t learn to play with others, it won’t get invited to any of the good parties. As the world moves to a carbon-zero economy, that’s an important lesson to take on board.

Australia’s other big excuse for inaction has been an economic one. But those economics are based back in the 50’s. They simply don’t work in a world that increasingly relies on new, clean technologies to solve the problems of the past. Trying to flog old fuels into a new, clean market just isn’t going to work.

China has already made its direction clear. It’s already done well in providing support for Australian solar research; it’s easily foreseeable that there will be similar investments in other forms of clean technology. What will Australia have to offer China for their clean energy ambitions? Not too much at this rate.

Over the last few years, Australian climate policy has been stuck in reverse. The carbon pricing mechanism has been abolished. Funding for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency has been slashed. Investment in renewable technology has declined substantially due to the ongoing review of the renewable energy target.

The US-China agreement should be a wake-up call that Australia is moving in the opposite direction to the rest of the world. It doesn’t need us to come along, and it’s not going to let us hold it back any longer.

The direction Australia is heading in now in no way lays the groundwork for a profitable future. A future based on clean technology. A future where coal will be left in the ground. We will continue to need international markets to accept our goods.  For them to want our goods, they need to be using and improving on the technologies available to us today; they need to be ‘clean and green.  They have to be lowering our carbon footprint, not increasing it.

There was clear signal sent this week that the world is changing, moving in the opposite direction to the one Australia has been stuck in. We need to be careful now that we are not left so far behind that we become completely irrelevant.

Stephen Bygrave is CEO of Beyond Zero Emissions.