Big Australian project wins boost US-battery supplier facing break-even year due to Trump tariffs

The US-based battery systems provider Fluence is expecting to at least break even this year, as some major battery project deals help it offset the uncertainty created in the market by the Trump administration’s tariff threats.

Fluence in May massively downgraded its revenue and earnings forecasts for its 2025 fiscal year – shaving $US700 billion ($A1.1 billion) off its revenue predictions to a range of $US2.6 to $US2.8 billion, largely because of the pause in some key US projects.

It also slashed its annual pre-tax profit forecasts to between zero and $US20 million, down from previous forecast of $70 million and $100 million – largely because of the tariff impacts.

In a new update release along with its third quarter results, Fluence says it now expects annual revenues will come in at the lower end of those expectations, largely because of delays in scaling its US-based manufacturing activities, although it confirmed the profit outlook remains unchanged.

“We believe the fundamentals of our business remain incredibly strong, supported by a robust backlog, of which we expect approximately $US2.5 billion to convert to revenue in fiscal 2026, including contracts signed in July and August to date,” CEO Julian Nebreda said in a statement.

Those contracts include the recently announced $800 million deal to build a massive 500 megawatt (MW), 2,000 MWh battery at Tomago for AGL near Newcastle. Fluence has also landed a contract in July to build the first 300 MW, 600 MWh stage of Ampyr Energy’s Wellington battery in the central west of NSW.

Australia is rapidly emerging as a key market for global battery suppliers, because of the pace of its own renewable transition and because of the uncertainty in the US created by Trump’s tariff manouvres.

That uncertainty has already helped claim one battery supplier, Powin – which sought bankruptcy protection just after it completed construction of Australia’s most powerful battery at Waratah – and has caused uncertainty for the Finnish-based Wartsila, at least in the US market.

Fluence, however, is confident in the future, with delayed revenues likely to be realised in the 2026 fiscal year. CFO Ahmed Pasha said securing a low-cost supply chain financing facility of $US150 million reflected market confidence in the company and would provide additional flexibility to “capitalize on future opportunities for growth.”

“The utility-scale battery storage industry as a whole is witnessing unprecedented growth, fueled by global transitions toward renewable energy, heightened focus on grid resilience, and supportive regulatory frameworks. Deployment of renewable energy resources has accelerated over the last decade,” the company writes.

“Industry-wide, the push for decarbonization is creating increasing demand for grid-scale energy storage, which is critical to enabling the integration of variable renewable energy sources, reducing the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy generation, and meeting ambitious net-zero targets.”

Fluence sees its major competitors as Tesla, Sungrow, CATL, and Wartsila.