“Anti-renewables populism is the largest unpriced risk:” But poll data shows support is growing, even in hot zones

New polling data shows that renewable energy is not as hated as protest groups are trying to make out – even in the regions where it looks like it’s most contentious. 

Squadron Energy, the developer owned by iron ore billionaire and green energy evangelist Andrew Forrest, found that in western Victoria, the homeland of influential protest group Farmers Fightback, 60.3 per cent of people still support local wind projects. 

Just 11 per cent oppose wind farms, according to the most recent of the three Essential Media polls commissioned over the last nine months.

This poll found that support in western Victoria has been rising since the start of 2026, from an initial 57.5 per cent.

But that doesn’t mean people aren’t worried about the quality of consultation, the use of agricultural land, fire risks and a sense that regional Australians are bearing the brunt of the energy transition. 

The data shows these fears are rising to 50-69 per cent.

“The specific concerns are there. It’s not driving support down, but it does give you a bit of a signal as to where this might go, if we don’t really get on top of it,” Squadron Energy head of corporate and community relations Dan Newlan said at the All Energy conference this week. 

“What it highlights… [is] that a small organized group can have a really considerable influence over a project or a renewable energy zone (REZ).”

Indeed, the company found 20 projects and Victoria’s Central-North renewable energy zone (REZ) had been cancelled due to social pressure: nine wind and 11 battery/solar projects. 

“There was a community driver behind the Victorian Labor government scrapping that REZ. So it’s a real issue that we face that actually creates a real commercial risk to any renewable energy company.” Newlan says.

“A consensus that we see amongst developers… is anti-renewables populism, not government policy, is the largest unpriced risk in any renewable energy development portfolio.”

Furthermore, while social licence nationally for renewable energy is trending downwards, in the hot spot of central west New South Wales (NSW) it’s improving – because people are finally beginning to see some of the benefits they have been promised for being in or around a REZ.

Recognition of local benefits is up 17 per cent, support for wind projects is up 8 per cent, and the rising tide is lifting sentiment towards developers too.

Support for Squadron, which is currently building the Uungala wind project in western NSW, is up 23 per cent, helped along by the opening of a $3.2 million wastewater treatment plant and the renovation of an old aged care home that will eventually be given back to the community. 

Using the activist playbook

That doesn’t mean the protest groups are going away.

But Newlan says they have seen the protesters’ tactics and are evolving, with a mantra that the activist playbook isn’t exclusively for activists.

Opponents’ voices are often the first ones heard after a project is announced or a milestone is reached, but the same tactics can be turned back on them “in a sensible, honest and transparent way.”

“I’m going to use [the 1.3 gigawatt GW] Pikedale in Queensland as an example. We announced that project, and again, activist groups set up straight away,” Newlan says.

“Local MP on radio saying he’s going to oppose the project. It was pretty quick, so we’re already in it. We had done a lot of groundwork though with our hosts… but we were able to quickly mobilize our most trusted supporters to get them into the media, to get them writing letters to the editor, to get them on a delegation to meet with the local MP. 

“Very quickly we saw that negative coverage stopping. The opposition group, the Facebook group, pretty much just died. People just stopped posting in it. And the local MP went back to a neutral position, which is a win.”

The idea is that a locally-led, well-resourced supporter view is mobilised at the same time as the protestors are spinning up their own campaign. 

But sometimes, the best response is not to respond at all, Newlan says. 

This is particularly true for town hall meetings, which are increasingly becoming venues for opponents of a project or renewables generally to try to shout down the speakers. 

At Tayoon, where Squadron is planning the 690 MW Ballyrogan wind project, a group hijacked a community forum and came out swinging in local media. 

Newlan says the developer eventually went silent and moved community consultation to smaller settings, such as pop-ups events.

“We’ve taken things off their terms and we’ve moved it onto our terms,” he says.

“Selective non-responses, not disengagement. You’re not backing out. You’re just simply bringing things back onto your terms. So that’s pretty much where we’re at.”

To support independent media, and help combat the spread of deliberate misinformation and disinformation about the energy transition, you can click here to make a one off donation or become a regular supporter of Renew Economy.

To join more than 29,000 others and get the latest clean energy news delivered straight to your inbox, for free, click here to subscribe to our free daily newsletter.