Back on the solar-coaster: Rooftop PV market rebounds from June lull to record July

Australia’s rooftop solar market is getting peakier, a new report has warned, with “worsening lows and improving highs” in month-to-month installations harking back to the notorious “solar-coaster” of the industry’s formative years.

But first the good news: The latest monthly data from industry analysts SunWiz shows 2024 national market volumes for rooftop PV installs have jumped 23 per cent compared to last month, setting a new record of 302 megawatts (MW) for July, and a record level for mid-year (April-October).

SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston says this means that “overall, July was our fifth-best month on record.”

This bumper month follows the mid-year slump the market experienced in June, when a sharp decline in monthly installation numbers took the shine off the record numbers charted in May.

A total of 248MW of rooftop solar was installed by Australian homes and businesses in June, down from the record-setting total of 292MW registered across the country in May – the largest total for the month of May ever recorded. Up down, up down.

“The market appears to be getting peakier, with worsening lows and improving highs,” says SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston. And while the record highs might make up for the lows, it can be a rough ride for solar retailers.

Johnston has wondered if a slowing rate of proposal-to-sale conversions is part of the problem, along with lower volumes of leads and customers helping to slow business. “These are very likely coupled to the broader malaise facing the Australian economy,” he said in this analysis in June.

In July, however, there was growth all round, in all states and territories, the SunWiz data shows. Households and businesses, hit by rises in bills and nasty surprises in new tariffs imposed after the installation of smart meters, are also increasing their interests in rooftop PV.

“July 2024 was another exceptional month, as volumes reversed the backsliding trend that was unfolding from February to June (with May as the other exception),” Johnston says.

The data shows the biggest driver of this jump in installs has come from the commercial rooftop solar sector – and particularly the 75-100kW systems segment, where installs jumped by 55 per cent, month-on-month.

Perhaps for this reason, average system size also surged, hitting 10.06kW, its second-highest level in recent months, Johnston says.

The report also notes considerable growth in the 8-50kW ranges, but the data shows that small systems didn’t benefit from the same uptick.

Rooftop PV, along with an anticipated sharp growth in household battery storage, is expected to play a crucial roll in the decarbonisation of the grid in coming decades.

But there is disagreement over the pace of new installations. The Australian Energy Market Operator predicts a four-fold increase in rooftop PV from 21 GW now to 86 GW by 2050, but BloombergNEF this week forecast a halving in rooftop solar installs from current levels by 2026.

Consumer energy resources – which also include appliances such as heat pumps, electric cars, and the creation of virtual power plans – have become the focus of numerous studies on how to marshall these resources for the benefit of the grid, and to ensure that consumers are also fairly treated.