Acting on global warming good for sex, and the economy too

A new report out of America has found that unchecked climate change could result in a decrease in human sexual activity. And it’s got economists worried too.

The report – a working paper put out by the National Bureau of Economic Research – analyses 80 years of US fertility and temperature data to come to the conclusion that extra hot summer days result in a large decline in the birth rate nine months later.

The three economists behind the study found that temperatures hotter than 27°C lead to a 0.4 per cent drop in the birth rate, or 1,165 fewer deliveries across the US.

Even more worryingly, the study also found that birth rates did not bounce back completely after heat waves, meaning that as the globe warms, developed countries could see already low birth rates fall even further, playing havoc with global economies.

And despite its whimsical title – “Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates – the paper makes some alarming predictions.

Working on the assumption that climate change will proceed according to the most severe scenarios, with no substantial efforts to reduce emissions, the researchers project that from 2070 to 2099, the US may have 64 more days above 27°C (80°F) than in the baseline period from 1990 to 2002, resulting in a potential 2.6 per cent decline in its birth rate, or 107,000 fewer deliveries a year.

What this might mean for Australia has not yet been calculated, but considering the extremes of the local climate and the recent scientific projections on how global warming will affect them, we should be taking this new study seriously.

Perhaps it will help sharpen the average Australian’s focus on the seriousness of climate change, and the need for us to act on curbing it.

As the Guardian reported on Thursday, new modelling from the CSIRO has found that tougher action to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions now would lead to stronger economic growth and a better environment – without the need for major lifestyle changes.

The team of 40 researchers integrated modelling of global economic demand and climate policy ambition with possible Australian government policy choices on climate, water, energy use and agricultural land use, as well as individual choices about working hours and consumption, to look at possible scenarios for Australia’s economic and environmental future out to 2050.

As the Guardian reports, “they conclude that government choices will make the biggest difference, and Australia has the chance to combine strong growth and a strong environmental performance without any major shift in the attitude of its citizens to consumerism, and without any startling new technological developments.”

Perhaps they should add, without any major shift in sexual activity, too.

Which brings us back to the US study, which according to Bloomberg, gives policymakers three major things to think about:

1. Birth rates are important economic indicators. “A sub-replacement birthrate means fewer workers to help pay for retirees, among other consequences”;

2. More babies born in summer (conceived in cooler months) is linked with a higher rate of poor infant health; and

3. We’re all going to need to install – and power – a whole lot more domestic air-conditioning.