“A monumental mistake:” Energy experts slam VNI West transmission plans

The controversial VNI West electricity transmission upgrade proposed to link Victoria and New South has been slammed as a “monumental mistake” and a “natural disaster magnet” in a detailed and scathing new submission opposing its development.

The 118-page report from former Powerlink COO Simon Bartlett and Victoria Energy Policy Centre’s Bruce Mountain finds little to like about the 500kV Victoria-New South Wales Interconnector (VNI) West transmission line, the preferred route for which was set out by the Australian Energy Market Operator in February.

AEMO Victoria Planning, or AVP, has been working up the logistics and economics of VNI West – also known as KerangLink – with network company Transgrid, as a vital interstate link that promises to unlock up gigawatts of new renewables and tap into the massive, but delayed, Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro storage project.

Finding an acceptable pathway for the new 500kV transmission lines has proven to be no easy task, but the latest proposal – running from Bulgana in western Victoria to Dinawan in NSW via a new terminal station near Kerang – seemed to receive broad approval.

But not everyone is happy.

According to Bartlett and Mountain, VNI West will drastically increase Victoria’s susceptibility to statewide blackouts through exposure to natural disasters and terrorism, will double transmission charges in Victoria and delay the transition to renewables until its completion in a decade’s time.

The submission also alleges that concentrating transmission along the VNI route, where the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) predicts network congestion will be severe, means as much as half of the renewables capacity built along that corridor will be wasted through spills and choke supply from Snowy 2.0 to the point where it presents no storage value to Victoria at all.

The duo point to transmission lines from the Latrobe Valley to Melbourne as an alternative, where existing capacity is “by far the strongest transmission corridor in Australia” and could be quickly expanded at low cost. 

Natural disaster magnet

Bartlett and Mountain say AEMO’s analysis has not accounted for natural disasters causing electrical faults at any of the 1,500 transmission towers along the VNI-West, despite known instances of severe lightning, destructive winds and fierce wildfires in the vicinity.

The AEMO predicts that bushfire risks to transmission lines will increase almost ten-fold between now and 2050, yet Bartlett and Mountain say that prediction is not included in the AEMO’s analysis of VNI-West.

A prolonged failure of any of the 1,500 transmission towers at the loading the AEMO predicts would likely cause an immediate state-wide blackout, followed by extensive electricity rationing until the damage was rectified, Bartlett says.

Based on ancient energy history

The AEMO analysis relies on a blueprint designed thirteen years ago as part of NEMLink, a theoretical 500 kV transmission line spanning from Tasmania to Townsville, Mountain says.

“AEMO is stuck in the past, pursuing a redundant vision that suits its corporate interests,” the pair said.

“Under the guise of providing solutions for the urgent energy transition, AEMO has pushed for an unchecked monopoly. Energy ministers have, so far, caved-in to its demands. AEMO is acting as monopolists do if given half a chance: putting itself first at others’ expense.

“The public has been repeatedly told that the transition to renewables will mean lower prices,” Mountain says.

“With AEMO at the helm, the opposite will happen.

“Instead of making the best use of the wonderful grid we already have, AEMO wants the community and renewable generation developers to wait on it to deliver its monumental plans.

“Its own analysis shows that the most monumental thing about its plans is the amount of time, natural resources and money it wastes.”

CORRECTION: This article has been corrected to show that Simon Bartlett is the former COO of Powerlink, and does not currently hold that position.