Will Bishop, Robb boost Australia’s climate reputation, or make it worse?

LIMA: It’s starting to look as if Australia’s reputation on climate issues lies in tatters upon the dusty floor of a suburban Lima eatery, somewhere on the outskirts of this great sprawling city, being gnawed at by a Peruvian street dog.

If that seems a little harsh, consider the following developments of the last few days:

For the first time, the goal of phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 appears in the draft text currently being debated at COP20 in Lima. Let that settle in you mind for a little bit: many of the world’s governments are seriously considering replacing the very thing that has enabled industrial civilization thus far. If nothing else, considering the power and might of the fossil fuel lobby, this is an extraordinary development. (Whether it sticks is another matter.)

Already, most OECD countries, including Stephen Harper’s Canada, with its tar sands and plans for mighty pipelines, chipped in to the Green Climate Fund. Meanwhile, Australia steadfastly snubs its nose at the very idea of helping poorer countries leapfrog over oil and coal, and industrialize cleanly.

The GCF—the aim of which is to finance mitigation and adaptation in less-developed countries—has reached almost US$10 billion. Non-governmental organizations at the COP are optimistic that more contributions will be forthcoming before the week is out.

Indeed, the text being negotiated for a new global agreement in Paris next year now sees adaptation get its very own paragraph, with specific targets for financial aid, and clear references to human rights and gender. Disappointingly, the language is still weak, but this, too, is still an extraordinary, not to mention sobering development. It recognizes that the climate is changing even as the delegates speak and ministers fly in.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organization warned that 2014 was shaping up to be the warmest year on record, with fourteen of the hottest fifteen years on record appearing this century. Hagupit, the storm that has now begun to kill and maim in the Philippines, started as the seventh Category 5 tropical storm of 2014—the most since 2005. In a sign of things to come, the Filipinos were better prepared this time and the largest single peacetime evacuation—nearly a million people—was carried out to move as many to safety as was practicable.

At a seminar organized at COP20 by the Inter-American Development Bank, renowned biologist and former environmental advisor to the World Bank, Thomas Lovejoy said, ‘It’s too late not to worry about adaptation.’ There is no longer a choice between mitigation and adaptation, Lovejoy said, the two are inseparable.

The very fact that the IDB and World Bank are here in Lima at all, and calling for stronger action, should give Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Trade Minister Andrew Robb—both in attendance this week—pause for thought.

Indeed, on Monday, the President of the World Bank, Dr Jim Yong Kim, called on governments to do two key things: introduce a price on carbon and end fossil fuel subsidies.

That is, the very policies the Abbott Government has fought tooth and nail to repeal and avoid are being advocated by the chief of the planet’s leading proponent of free-market reform. While Mr Abbott argues that ‘coal is good’ and to phase it out would be to condemn millions to shiver in the cold, the IDB and World Bank regard climate change as a strategic challenge and renewables as essential to poverty alleviation. These and other multilateral development banks now routinely screen prospective loans for carbon and climate risk.

It remains to be seen what role Australia will take at these negotiations. There are some signs that it will sit on the sidelines as much as possible, and others that it will continue to do what it can to hamper efforts to arrive at something ambitious for Paris.

Speaking from Lima, Greens Leader, Senator Christine Milne said it was clear that the Foreign Minister knows the extent to which Australia is isolated in its views.

‘Therefore, the Prime Minister wants to make sure his number-one loyalist—and the man responsible for overturning Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership because of his stance on climate change—comes to Lima to make sure no compromise is offered by Australia.’

‘My only hope is that Andrew Robb’s eyes are opened by the number of high-level of business delegations here at the COP20 and the extent to which business is now fully engaged with the transition to clean economies and the technology to support adaptation,’ Senator Milne said.

Despite protestations from the Government that Robb is not here simply to accompany Bishop, it’s understood that the two will attend almost every meeting together. It’s hard not to see this as further evidence that Robb is here to ‘chaperone’ Bishop.

Senator Milne remarked that it was ironic that the Trade Minister was taking part in climate talks given the Prime Minister’s insistence that climate change had no place in economic dialogues, such as the G20.

‘The fact that Abbott has insisted that Andrew Robb come suggests he knows the intense pressure the Foreign Minister is under with climate change raised at every one of the meetings she has attended in recent months.’

Of course, what else could the Government do? To not send ministers to Lima would risk their absence becoming the headlines.

In an annual assessment of countries climate performance by NGOs Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe, Australia has slipped to last place in the developed world since last year. That is, behind Canada and only a smidgeon ahead of Saudi Arabia.

And Bloomberg New Energy Finance didn’t mince words in their pre-COP20 briefing paper:

‘Australia has lost a lot of credibility around the negotiating table since Prime Minister Tony Abbott repealed the country’s carbon price earlier this year. Abbott has snubbed the UN talks in the past, sending only low-level delegates to COP19.’

It seems Bishop and Robb are here to take some of the sting out of that charge, but they can only do so much and may well end up worsening Australia’s diplomatic situation simply by opening their mouths.

It is a testament to his skills as a politician that Tony Abbott and his lieutenants have been able to convince much of the Australian electorate that the world had given up on progressive climate policies. But reality has a way of defeating even the most skilful politician.