Why electricity networks need to understand people, not just poles and wires

For decades, electricity networks have planned the future grid by estimating how people might use electricity.

Now, one of Australia’s biggest electrification trials is providing networks with something new: detailed, real-world data on how households actually electrify over time, rather than how models predict they might.

And that could fundamentally change how much infrastructure they need to build.

That’s one of the biggest insights for Endeavour Energy, the local network operator, emerging from the Electrify 2515 project on the NSW south coast, where around 500 households are progressively replacing gas appliances with efficient electric alternatives, installing solar, batteries and smart energy devices.

The project has so far generated more than one billion data points over 18 months, providing Endeavour with an unprecedented picture of how households electrify, when they use electricity, and how their behaviour changes over time.

For Colin Crisafulli, Endeavour Energy’s General Manager of Future Grid and Asset Management, it’s the sort of information that should change the way electricity networks think about the future grid.

For years critics have warned widespread electrification will overwhelm local electricity networks and force billions of dollars to be spent on new poles and wires. But Crisafulli told this week’s episode of the SwitchedOn Australia podcast the evidence collected so far points in a different direction.

“Everything we’ve seen is it absolutely will cope. If anything, it’s increased our resolve around making sure that how it copes is the smartest way, the most efficient way, in making it cope.”

Electricity consumption has increased significantly in many of the households participating in the Electrify 2515 trial. Some fully electrified homes that have removed gas appliances and added electric vehicles have seen daily electricity consumption more than double, rising from around 35 kilowatt-hours to about 80 kilowatt-hours a day.

But higher electricity use has not translated into proportionally higher demand on the network during critical peak periods.

“None of those behaviours at this point are leading us to a concern that the grid can’t handle it. Quite the opposite – the grid is absolutely ready for electrification.”

Crisafulli readily acknowledges networks are “quite good at building poles and wires,” but the future requires a different mindset.

Rather than building a bigger grid, he says we need to make better use of the one we already have: “how do we double what the grid can do without necessarily doubling the size of the grid.”

The answer, he argues, lies less in engineering and more in understanding people: “understanding how we can help consumers get value out of the investments that they’re making.”

And that shifts the focus from simply forecasting appliance uptake to understanding – and influencing – how those appliances are used.

One of the biggest lessons from Electrify 2515, he says, is that networks need to stop talking like engineers and start thinking more like customer businesses.

For decades, controlled off-peak hot water has helped balance electricity demand. Networks viewed it as a demand management tool. Customers simply saw cheaper electricity and reliable hot water.

The same principle should now apply to the next generation of consumer energy resources.

“The more [networks] can focus on developing products and services that really speak to customers in terms of what it means for them – like a hot water system is for hot water, it’s not a demand management device – the more you start to change the dial around.”

People are rarely motivated by helping the electricity network, he says. They want cheaper bills, more comfort, better transport, or greater control over their homes.

“It’s speaking in a language that’s relevant to what they’re actually trying to get from the technology, which is often not energy, it’s something else. It could be control, it could be a hot water service, it could be transport.”

That insight has broader implications. Crisafulli acknowledges that different technologies have different impacts on householders’ levels of comfort, and some are not suitable for grid operators to orchestrate.

“The idea of a grid operator coming in and controlling an air conditioner is not a good thing – that’s actually a direct impact on comfort.”

But the more consumers can understand their own energy use, and needs, Crisafulli believes they are more likely to participate in services that also support the grid.

Electrify 2515 participants have all been equipped with Smart Energy Devices which allow households to monitor their electricity use, while providing researchers with detailed data about how people interact with new technologies.

Combined with Endeavour’s own monitoring equipment installed throughout the local network, the project has produced an enormous behavioural dataset.

“Each of the data points tells a different story, it tells a different customer journey.”

The implication is significant. If networks can observe real customer behaviour they can also develop tariffs, incentives and services that better match the way different households actually use electricity.

“Those data points are telling us that consumer behaviour is ultimately the driver of the investments we need to make.”

That doesn’t mean networks can bypass retailers. 

“Endeavor Energy develops its tariffs, its prices, its other value propositions, and packages them up for retailers, and it’s up to retailers to take those and then develop a product and a service for a customer.”

Crisafulli points to Endeavour’s Flexible Exports program as an example of the kind of customer-focused product networks will increasingly need. The program, which is operating in the 2515 area, allows many households to export up to 10 kW of rooftop solar most of the time while enabling the network to temporarily reduce exports, to “throttle it back if there is a grid constraint, or if there is a system security concern.” 

“What we’re trying to do is develop a product that 99% of the time puts more value in the pocket of customers, but doing it in a way that actually doesn’t require you to invest in poles and wires.”

Ultimately, Crisafulli says their ambition is straightforward.

“How do we make sure we’ve used everything we can in the grid, we’ve really empowered customers as much as we can, and only then are we talking about potentially upgrading infrastructure.”

If Electrify 2515 continues to support that proposition, the project’s biggest legacy may not be in proving that Australia can electrify. 

It may be showing electricity networks that understanding household behaviour, and offering products that genuinely reward customers for using energy flexibly, can help target future infrastructure investment more effectively.

You can hear the full interview with Colin Crisafulli on the SwitchedOn podcast here.