Global temperature records shattered

In the past few weeks, climate records have shattered across the globe.  July 4 was the hottest global average day on record at 17.18°C breaking the record of 17.01°C set the previous day.

Experts are expecting more days like this, or possibly even warmer, as the northern summer rolls on and the latest El Nino kicks in.

The Paris Agreement was a global commitment to limit warming to an average of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But the EU said  global average temperatures in June 2023 were 1.46°C.

Global average air temperatures sit between 12°C and just under 17°C during the year.  For the two decades between 1979 and 2000 the start of July averaged 16.2°C.

Global sea temperatures have also been higher for longer, with global averages touching 21°C in March and remaining high through May.

There is some debate whether a lack of Saharan dust and the phase out of sulphur fuels in shipping have caused the rise. New global rules have phased out high-sulphur fuels in shipping, dropping sulphur dioxide emissions by about 10%.

However, some researchers think sulphur particles counteract the effects of global warming. The long term drivers are clear - greenhouse gas emissions, which grew in 2022 by 0.9 per cent to more than 36.8 gigatonnes (Gt) globally.

But the current weather is due to a combination of heatwaves in the US, Europe and Canada and the El Niño weather pattern.

Climate modelling indicates that El Niño effects like drought and marine heatwaves will become more intense with climate change.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, typically lasting 9 to 12 months. It's a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. But in this case it comes at a time of human-influenced climate change.

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