Stubborn fossil fuel emissions threaten to blow global carbon budget
No peak is in sight for carbon emissions despite progress for renewable energy, according to the latest global carbon tracker.
Scientists including Australia’s CSIRO on Wednesday warned climate negotiators of a 50% chance the world’s “carbon budget” required to limit global warming to 1.5C could be exceeded in six years.
Total carbon emissions from fossil fuels and land use may have plateaued over the past decade, mostly because of a fall in emissions from deforestation, but they are not declining.
Growth of 0.8 per cent in gas and oil use drove fossil fuel carbon emissions to a record high of 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, putting carbon concentration 52 per cent above pre-industrial levels, scientists said.
The carbon project tracks trends in emissions and so-called carbon sinks such as oceans and forests, which absorb more emissions from the atmosphere than they release.
Land and ocean sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change, the report found.
Australia’s fossil fuel carbon emissions had fallen because of a continuous decline in coal emissions and a decline in gas emissions for the first time, but oil emissions were up, CSIRO’s chief research scientist Pep Canadell said.
Pep said any new mine or fracking project would add more carbon emissions into the atmosphere and further reduce the carbon budget.
The reporting does not include methane emissions, which account for 0.5C in global warming, and are tracked separately.
Nor does it include the 50-year development pipeline that will expand gas production off Australia’s west coast.
Ahead of the peak of Australia’s summer bushfire season, the report found emissions from fires so far in 2024 have been above the average after an extreme wildfire season in Canada and intense drought in Brazil.
The report also found carbon dioxide removal technologies, which are part of national net-zero targets, have had a negligible impact – accounting for about one-millionth of the carbon emitted from fossil fuels.
International aviation and shipping, which make up three per cent of total emissions, are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below pre-pandemic levels.