Why Australia may miss its renewable energy target
Australia’s 2030 target is 82% renewables, but Rystad Energy warns current trends may only deliver 60% by 2030, with 82% delayed to 2037.
The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) has not yet proven effective, with early winners bidding so low that financing is now uncertain.
No wind projects have reached financial close in 2025, and new construction has stalled; costs exceed $100/MWh, making wind PPAs unattractive.
Transmission delays and cost blowouts (up 50%) are stranding multiple gigawatts of projects, especially in NSW’s renewable zones.
Federal minister Chris Bowen expanded the CIS from 32 GW to 40 GW and accelerated tenders, but analysts argue tougher penalties are needed, such as a $10m bond for failed projects.
The big utilities are on a buyers’ strike, refusing to sign new offtake contracts despite coal plant closures looming, like Eraring in 2027.
Some solar and battery projects are moving forward—six CIS-backed projects began construction, but most would have proceeded anyway.
Victoria’s Golden Plains wind farm shows merchant builds can work, but few developers can take that risk under current market conditions.
New turbine maker Envision could improve competition, but will take time to establish in Australia’s difficult grid connection environment.
Bowen insists the 82% goal is still achievable, citing rooftop solar growth and a large project pipeline,. But critics argue stronger policy enforcement is essential to meet the deadline.