“Riddled with breakdowns”: intermittent coal power is a major threat to grid reliability

Australia’s ageing coal fleet is in a shocking state, with 128 unplanned unit break-downs over summer – eight times more than anticipated.

A report by Reliability Watch found a “staggering” 5.1 GW of coal fired power capacity was offline at any one time across NSW, Queensland and Victoria from October to March.

That's the equivalent of powering 1.2 million homes, and amounts to one quarter of rated capacity in summer when electricity demand is highest.

The analysis also found a strong correlation between coal breakdowns and high wholesale prices.

The findings will not be a surprise to anyone. AEMO has previously highlighted that breakdowns from ageing coal fired generators are the biggest risk to energy reliability in Australia’s main grid.

The AEMO, and most of the major coal fired generator owners, say Australia must move beyond the age of “baseload” concepts that still dominate debate.

The reality is wind and solar output is variable, but predictable. 

Harder to manage are large generators suddenly going offline without warning, often because of technical faults.

Battery storage – which has expanded significantly with the growth of wind and solar – has demonstrated its ability to be a reliable “shock absorber” for the grid.

The government is committed to a target of 82% renewables by 2030, based largely around AEMO modelling which forecasts most, if not all, coal fired generators will need to retire by around 2035. But that plan has faced pushback from Coalition and conservative forces.

The newly elected Queensland LNP government is spending billions extending the life of its coal generators, and has imposed new rules that make it harder for renewable projects to gain approval.

This week, the new leader of the federal Opposition, Sussan Ley, insisted Australia needs to focus on baseload power sources for low prices and grid reliability.

But Reliability Watch notes that Queensland coal generators were the most unreliable, breaking down 78 times over the summer period, including a dramatic “explosion” at Callide.

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