ITechnology researcher and futurist Tony Seba predicts global new car sales will plunge by 75 per cent by 2030 as a result of the longevity of electric vehicles and autonomous driving.
He says electric vehicles will do around 800,000 km, compared to ICE vehicles that do around 225,000 km over their lifetime.This means EVs will last 4-5 times longer and people won’t need to replace cars as often.
Seba is the cofounder of RethinkX, and known globally for his research on technology “S-curves” which show how throughout history, technology uptake seems slow to begin with, but then accelerates dramatically.
In 2014 Seba predicted battery costs would drop from around $500 per kWh to just $100 per kWh by 2023. A prediction that has proven scarily accurate.
Seba has just returned from the Shanghai auto show and predicts the market share of electric vehicles will hit 50 per cent in China this year.
"What I saw was amazing. I mean, just the sheer quality for the cost of the EVs that Chinese automakers are producing is just stunning."
Tony SebaTechnology Researcher & uturist
"Soon enough you’re gonna see million mile EVs. And what that means is that over 10 years you’re going to need just one EV for 10 petrol cars ..... it’s pretty much over for internal combustion engine.”