Big grids could be powered by renewables, with little or no storage – if we're smart 

One of biggest debates around the future of a major grid dominated by renewables is the amount of large-scale storage we'll need. But the storage needs might be less than we think.

One study found that surprisingly little storage is needed up to 50% renewables, and little more than 100 kWh in the “very high” scenarios. This has been borne out in SA, running at an average 75% renewables, with comparatively little storage - just four utility scale batteries of various sizes.

Most agree that the last 5-10% of any renewable grid will be the most challenging.  The final equation will also depend on how well a grid is connected to other state or country grids.

But what if little or no bulk storage is needed at all?  This idea is being suggested by Amory Lovins, an energy expert dubbed the “Einstein of energy efficiency”.

Lovins cites a study on the Texas grid, one of the world’s largest grids that's also nearly completely isolated, and with no big hydro.

If demand is reduced through efficiency, the model finds that around 86% of electricity can be supplied by wind and solar, and another 14% from dispatchable renewables.

Lovins says this 100% renewable supply can then match the load by putting surplus electricity into two kinds of distributed storage – ice-storage air-conditioning, and smart EV charging, to be recovered when needed.

Lovins says many European countries – Germany, Ireland, Denmark, and Scotland - already deliver half to three quarters of their annual electricity needs from wind and solar, without significant bulk storage.  And they have better and improving reliability.

The chances of this scenario playing out in Australia is remote, given politicians and market operators have already committed tens of billions in bulk solutions, such as storage and new transmission lines.

Energy efficiency experts have spent decades pointing out that an integrated system approach that focuses as much, or more, on consumption than supply will be much cheaper. Sadly, they have little to show for it.

Still, there have been important gains. Renewables make all the headlines, but Lovins says saved energy is half of the world’s historic decarbonisation and at least half of future decarbonization.

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