Australia’s emissions are stuck, despite best efforts of renewables
Australia's latest emissions data show that our total emissions have essentially stopped falling.
While the power sector continues to fall, heavy industry, transport and agriculture are rising.The net result: stasis.
This tug of war was heavily skewed by COVID.Rebounding agriculture and transport in particular are cancelling out reductions in the power sector.
The Labor government has seen six quarters' worth of emissions data – 40% of the tenure of the ScoMo government.That means their emissions performance is due for scrutiny.
There is a very slight reduction over the past couple of years – but it’s the lowest rate of reductions in recent history. If the trends of the past two years continue, it’ll take until the year 2207 to reach zero emissions.
Meanwhile, land-use data revisions are still completely changing Australia’s climate narrative.
The Australian government blends fossil carbon emissions data with land-use emissions data, and historical revisions tend to create a more favourable climate narrative for the government.
While land-use data is constantly revised, Australia’s extremely significant coal mine methane underestimation problem remains largely unaddressed.
Recently, Climate Action Tracker showed that Australia’s 2030 reduction target – billed at 43% – amounts to more like a 24% reduction.
The latest data represents the first full half-year of the new ‘safeguard mechanism’, a system of mandatory carbon offset purchases for heavy industry and fossil fuel miners.
Data relating to facilities covered by the scheme is not available yet. But the recent data, as a rough proxy, shows zero impact so far.