Australia in the dark on its own fossil fuel emissions
Australia does not know what it is emitting nor how much.A group of eminent scientists are pushing the government to adopt a new roadmap to fill that knowledge gap.
There are currently just four greenhouse gas monitoring sites across the country: Cape Grim in Tasmania, Gunn Point in the Northern Territory, Aspendale in Victoria and Wollongong in NSW.
No modern techniques such as satellite data are used.Sophisticated regulations like the EU's are also absent from Australian policy, including standards for measuring, reporting and verifying methane emissions from oil, gas and coal sectors.
A new proposal, written by the chief scientist at the Superpower Institute and atmospheric physicist, Peter Rayner, wants the number of sites beefed up to at least 16, to monitor methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide, and ancillary gases.
These sites will complement and refine satellite data, allowing emissions sources to be better pinpointed and effective carbon sinks identified.
The central pillar of the roadmap, however, is mandated source-level measurements by industry operators such as coal miners and gas companies on-site, which would be verified by an independent arbiter.
The estimated cost is $40 million in startup costs, and $6 million a year afterwards to run it.
Not knowing exactly what the country is emitting is a key problem. Australia can’t reduce what it doesn’t know – or won’t admit – is being created. And other countries with the power to punish those emissions have a better idea of what our emissions might be.
The IEA says Australia produces five times as much methane as the population warrants, but systemic underreporting means that number is likely to be as much as 63% higher than government estimates.
For example, Dutch satellites show Glencore’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland emits 10 times as much methane as the company reports, some 200,000 tonnes annually.
With the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism finalising in 2025, the EU will soon be able to tax – or put a fair price on – the carbon content of goods imported into the zone.
Satellite technology, including cameras that can capture gas readings and AI that can analyse it, are already proving that some energy producers in Australia do not have control over fugitive emissions, or are deliberately venting greenhouse gases.
The EU will know better than Australia the carbon content of its coal or steel, and be able to tax accordingly – with little regard to the Australian data.
The Superpower Institute, its university partners, and CSIRO don’t plan to let big emitters continue to make their own claims around emissions, if the government doesn’t quickly implement the roadmap.The institute will begin releasing satellite data showing Australia’s emissions from next year.