“We don’t need solar technology breakthroughs, we just need connections”

One of the world’s most respected solar industry analysts has dismissed the ongoing claims that we need a technology breakthrough to reach low carbon grids.

In her annual solar industry appraisal, which she shared – as she does each year – on Twitter, BloombergNEF’s Switzerland-based Jenny Chase says solar remains the cheapest source of bulk electricity in many countries, and one of the quickest to deploy.

And, in the midst of the 2022 global energy crisis, primarily caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and driven by surging prices for coal and fossil gas, the continued rollout of solar PV has been invaluable.

“The limits to PV build this year have been supply, installation labour, grid access and permitting,” Chase notes.

“We don’t need a technology breakthrough. Today, solar developers just need a grid connection and permission to sell electricity and they’ll be off building solar plants whether it’s a good idea or not.”

That is a view that will be share by many in Australia, not just in the solar sector but also in the wind and battery storage sectors – an issue that is being slowly addressed with a revision to connection rules, and more grid capacity, although the latter will take time.

Chase observes that a lot of solar capacity in the middle of the day will lead to negative prices, but this should not be a cause of great concern.

“There’s little talk of power price cannibalisation in 2022, because most countries have been too busy worrying about very high power prices,” she notes. “But solar plants do still all generate power at the same time, and that will cause sunny hours to have very low power prices in future.

(Queensland and South Australia know all about this, thanks to their huge shares of rooftop PV in their respective grids, and long periods of negative prices during the day, particularly in autumn and spring).

“It may well be that “negative power prices for a few hours every sunny day, followed by high evening power prices when the sun goes down” is a problem solved by capitalism and batteries,” Chase adds. These include, she might have added, a shift in loads to when the prices are lowest.

Of course, these observations by Chase do not mean that the sun shines benignly over the entire solar industry. There are enormous challenges, particularly when it comes to manufacturing, and the intense competition in that market.

“Solar manufacturing is still a bad business to be in despite three relatively good years. Competition is vicious, the newest factories have the best tech. Older manufacturers carry heavy debt for factories rapidly becoming obsolete.”

Nor is she convinced (yet) of the merits of perovskite technologies, lauded in many quarters as one of the big advances in solar PV in recent years.

“I refuse to get excited about perovskites until a perovskite company can disclose a commercial partnership with a named major module manufacturer. (This was my opinion in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. It is my opinion still).”

There are 50 thoughts in total, all of them of interest. Rather than go through them all, here are some of the more interesting ones:

On the role that solar will play in the decarbonisation of the planet:

“Solar is a major part of decarbonising electricity, but probably not more than 50% worldwide, so we need something else too. Transport will go electric but also we really need to sort out industry, agriculture, shipping and aviation for a sustainably habitable planet.”

For those who think that solar will take up too much land:

“There is enough land for lots of solar. There are enough golf courses in the U.S. for about 370GW, ffs. There’s also loads and loads of roofs, so let’s see those who oppose ground-mounted solar support higher-cost roof-mounted solar.”

For those – such as billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and others – considering massive solar arrays in desert and arid regions:

“Solar plant operation and maintenance in desert environments will prove more challenging than PV project stakeholders currently expect. Climate risk from hurricanes, hailstorms, fire and floods is on the rise for solar as for everything else.”

(See also: Hot, humid, dusty and boring: Building solar farms in the outback is not piles of fun).

The merits of solar thermal (now undergoing some sort of mini revival in Australia, such as with Raygen here and Vast Solar here).

“Solar thermal tower and heliostat designs are still not working well, although we’ll see how smoothly Cerro Dominador (in Chile) performs now it’s commissioned. We might even end up using molten salt for multi-day and seasonal storage… but heat it with PV.”

For those wondering what car to buy:

“Anyone buying a new internal combustion car now is pretty silly. EVs aren’t the answer to everything – especially congestion of cities – but they do use much less energy and, with flexibility, can support the grid.”

For those installing solar and household batteries:

“If you get a battery and a solar system, pay attention to when it charges and discharges and what power costs at those times! Everyone needs a hobby. (We need better control software for the residential segment).”

And:

“Batteries for residential solar systems are becoming standard offers in Europe and the US. Frankly some of the sales proposals are of indifferent veracity and the current software isn’t up to economically optimising when batteries charge and discharge.”

For fans of BIPV, such as solar tiles, solar windows, and even solar skylights:

“Building-integrated PV products are usually attempts to sell bad solar products for premium prices to gullible aesthetes and architects.”

(Chase also notes that floating solar is just solar on a boat. Agrivoltaics are solar in a field).

Why some projects should never be built:

“Many solar project developers complaining their problem is ‘finance’ are being disingenuous. Their problem is, their project is rubbish and they cannot convince anyone otherwise. This is not just a solar thing.”

A reminder of the hardest part of the task to get to zero emissions:

“We’re finally getting serious about net zero carbon. Getting that last 10-30% of carbon out will be hard, and require some expensive solutions. The first 70-90% is easy-ish but we’re getting on with it.”

And finally, to some of the biggest contributors to the global climate problem:

“It would still really help if rich people would stop pissing away carbon for no reason.”

There’s a lot more, and worth a read. You can find Jenny Chase’s full Twitter thread here.