UK sets “shining example” for 2035 targets as COP29 gathers pace. Will Australia match its ambition?

UK prime minister Keir Starmer has laid down the gauntlet on climate action to Australia and the rest of the developed world, after committing the UK to an interim emissions reduction target of at least 81 per cent on 1990 levels by 2035.

Starmer announced the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target on Tuesday at the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, making the UK one of the first major economies to do so and setting a (reasonably) high bar for the other signatories to the Paris accord.

The adoption of 2035 NDCs was agreed to at last year’s COP28 in Dubai, in line with advice from the IPCC that limiting warming to 1.5°C means pushing global greenhouse gas emissions 60% below 2019 levels by 2035 – rather than just aiming for net zero by 2050 and hoping for the best.

“Our goal of 1.5°C is aligned with our goals for growth,” Starmer told the global climate conference. 

“But a global problem also requires global partnership; responsible international co-operation. Which is why we took the opportunity at this COP to again urge all parties to come forward with ambitious targets of their own – as we all agreed at the last COP.

“Because make no mistake, the race is on for the clean energy jobs of the future; the economy of tomorrow. And I don’t want to be in middle of the pack. I want to get ahead of the game.”

The UK’s 2035 NDC, set well ahead of the February 2025 deadline, has certainly grabbed attention; notable descriptors include “eye-wateringly high” (Sky News) and “a honking great number” (The Australia Institute’s Tennant Reed).

And while the focus in the UK will be on how, and if, the new target can be achieved – the eradication of coal power and expansion of offshore wind is a good start – in Baku the pressure is on for other countries to show similar ambition.

“This NDC is exactly what the world needs right now to help mobilise climate action,” said Caterina Brandmayr, director of policy and translation at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London.

“With 2024 expected to be the hottest on record and climate disasters like the Spanish floods and other extreme weather battering all parts of the world with just 1.3°C of warming, the reality of climate change could not be starker.

“NDCs are critical to drive the near term scale-up of clean technologies and ensure rapid emissions reductions,” Brandmayr said on Tuesday.

“The United Kingdom’s new emissions reduction target is a shining example of climate leadership,” said Stientje van Veldhoven, World Resources Institute’s vice president and regional director for Europe. “Let’s hope it will inspire other G20 economies to follow suit.”

In particular, all eyes are on the US, whose appearance at COP 29 comes less than a week after the country’s enthusiastic re-election of the climate denying and anti-renewables Donald Trump.

“The beginning of the COP meeting has been overshadowed by the news of a second Trump Presidency and the likelihood that he will pull the US out of the negotiations,” said Mark Maslin, professor of climatology at UCL in London.

“Starmer’s announcements are timely showing that the UK is back leading the world with climate action. Because the UK Government realises that switching to a clean green economy is good for people’s health, security and boosts growth.”

US climate envoy John Podesta said on Monday that the fight “for a cleaner, safer” planet will not stop under Trump, noting that “the fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country.”

Podesta also said the climate talks in Baku presented a “critical opportunity to cement our progress” and that the US was “here to work and committed to a successful COP 29 outcome.”

Australia, which has so far committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and then net zero by 2050, has said it will submit a 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC in 2025.

Just last week, a group of independent “teal” federal MPs called on the Albanese government to release its 2035 well before next year’s federal election – which myst be held by May – and to set it for at least 75 per cent emissions reduction.

The federal opposition, meanwhile, is looking unlikely to stick to Australia’s current 2030 emissions reduction target, let alone set a 2035 NDC. A recent report from the Climate Change Authority has also warned that net zero by 2050 would not be met under the federal Coalition’s nuclear power plan.