The staggering numbers behind Australia’s 82 per cent renewables target

Federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen has revealed some of the staggering numbers – and huge challenges – behind the federal government’s target of 82 per cent renewables in the electricity grid by 2030.

The 82 per cent renewables share is the key component of the government’s now legislated emissions reduction target of 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. And it will be key to future tougher targets too because a decarbonised grid is key to cutting emissions in other sectors of the economy.

But the scale of what needs to be achieved in the electricity sector alone is staggering, and all – as Bowen points out – in just 87 months.

In a speech in the US over the weekend, the last of his whirlwind tour that saw him address the UN and key ministerial gatherings, and get a test drive of the Ford F150 Lightning electric ute, Bowen laid out some of the numbers.

Turbines and solar modules are getting bigger

These included installing about forty 7MW wind turbines every month until 2030, and 22,000 500W solar panels every day for the next eight years, or 60 million by 2030.

They may need to install many more turbines and solar panels than forecast by Bowen. For instance, no 7MW wind turbines have yet been installed in Australia, the biggest is just short of 6MW, although some have been assumed, such as at the green hydrogen project in Western Australia.

And, if offshore wind projects do get delivered in time as all the industry hype suggests, then those turbines are likely to be at least 8MW, and possibly as big as 15MW by the end of the decade.

Solar panels, too, are getting bigger and more powerful, but most of the modules currently being installed in Australia are closer to 400W than 500W, although that can also change.

Whatever the size and final number of wind turbines and panels that must be installed, that is only part of the equation.

Labour and logistics

As Bowen also pointed out in his latest speech, there are major challenges in securing enough labour, and freeing up the global supply chains, which is why the Australian government is now trying to encourage a domestic manufacturing industry for at least some of those supplies.

“Right now, the stark reality is that we have an urgent need for action, a significant amount of investment, global competition for finite manufacturing components – coupled with a clear vulnerability in the supply chain,” Bowen said.

“Today, more than 80% of solar PV production is concentrated in one country. This is expected to reach over 95% soon. I reckon that meets the definition of a monopoly – and in the context of a global energy system that needs to de-carbonise, a potential risk to energy security the world over.

“It’s a similar story with lithium batteries and the electrolysers used to produce hydrogen.The simple truth is that no one country can or should produce enough clean energy inputs to meet the global need.

“Even if we were comfortable with the concentration in the supply chain, the stark fact is current production won’t be enough to meet future demands on the path to net zero.

“To achieve net zero, we all need to be producing the components to get us there. More reliable supply chains and more supply chains in total.”

Australia needs to manufacture more

In Australia, not much is made locally. It has only solar module assembly, at Tindo in South Australia, and a couple of groups that can build wind towers.

Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Future Industries is building an electrolyser manufacturing facility in Gladstone, and could add solar panels, wind turbines and other key components in future years.

And it is clear that the massive Sun Cable project in the Norther Territory – backed by Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes – assumes a significant amount of local manufacturing to help meet the 20GW of large scale solar and up to 42GWh of battery storage. Other big green hydrogen projects are likely to make the same assumptions.

But another question is about labour. Massive amounts of trained technicians and workers – by some estimates more than 500 million across the world – will be needed to deliver on the green energy promises.

In Australia, that translates to more than half a million. And it is not the only potential bottleneck – there are also the issues of transmission lines, the new market rules, connection issues, and the logistics of transporting massive turbines across the Australia landscape.