“The scores are going off the charts”: Iran conflict boosts support for renewables and energy independence

Anti renewable energy messages are no longer winning the battle of ideas, for now, as sovereignty and independence become the new buzzwords, says marketing expert Ed Coper. 

The nays were gaining ground, albeit from a small base, before the start of the Iran war, he says.

But rapidly rising fuel prices and shortages, as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked to most of the world’s oil and gas tankers, have supercharged the already-powerful idea that renewable energy equals independence. 

“Already, before Iran, energy independence was the most resonant [message]. Now that the conflict has happened, it’s even more resonant. The scores are going off the charts,” Coper, the CEO of communications agency Populares, tells Renew Economy.

“Our assumption is that those messages are only going to increase in strength over time. We’re certainly seeing that with our testing at the moment.”

Coper is basing his view on the company’s in-house algorithm, which he says captures millions of social media impressions on ideas and images being tested in the market.

Sovereignty and independence are messages the energy industry and politicians have finally begun to embrace.

Solar and home battery retailers are hard selling the idea that energy independence starts at home.

And federal energy minister Chris Bowen has been repeating at media doorstops, events and in press releases the refrain “renewable energy is the cheapest form of new generation in this country. The sun does not send a bill. Geopolitics can’t stop the sun shining in Australia. No war can stop the flow of wind to our country.”

War is not won

Before the war, Coper was sounding alarm bells.

He was very worried that, as happened with the Voice referendum vote, the “outrage machine” was winning — in contrast to industry data that shows renewable developments running hot.

Cope pointed to a quarterly study by SEC Newgate in February that showed support for perennially popular rooftop solar falling from the 84-85 per cent levels of analysis done in September and November last year, to 81 per cent in February this year. 

Support for renewables including hydro has been ticking down, and support for coal and nuclear power was shifting upwards.

The Mood of the Nation report from February 2026. Blue and red highlights show statistically significant differences in opinion. Image: SEC Newgate

Fast forward two months and new data shows the Iran war hasn’t won it for renewables entirely.

SEC Newgate released a mini mid-cycle Mood of the Nation over the weekend which shows positivity towards the renewables transition remains steady at 52 per cent. 

But negativity rose by 5 points to a record high 28 per cent between February and April. 

One third of the 1,237 respondents across five states say they are more likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle (EV) compared to the start of the year, with 10 per cent saying they’re less likely.

Mood of the Nation report for April 2026. Blue and red highlights show statistically significant differences in opinion. Image: SEC Newgate

Cope warns that support for home batteries and solar — hip pocket purchases rather than statements of belief in climate change — do not necessarily correlate with support for the energy transition and he has a warning for industry: don’t get complacent.

“The take home lesson is that none of these attitudes are set in stone,” he says.

“The perception is baked into the community that these are technologies that help address those price sensitivities and also [empower] the individual to be able to decouple them for some of these global forces that that are driving prices up.

“[But] we can’t take for granted the fact that even things that are universally viewed positively, like rooftop solar, [can be] prone to very quick and dramatic changes in attitude based on external things like like global crisis, and that can cut both ways.”

Coper says the good news is the vast majority of Australians don’t agree with anti-renewable energy views, according to a recent industry study Populares has done, which is yet to be released publicly.

It shows Australians’ views on how the build new energy infrastructure align with what the majority of industry is willing to pay for. 

“When you put the notion of how the energy transition should be done to the Australian people, they both recognise and understand that renewables are the cheapest way to get done and overwhelmingly, unsurprisingly, support the idea of doing the transition in the cheapest possible way,” Coper says. 

“If the market were to decide a solution to this problem, it would never invest in new coal and gas fired power, nor domestic refining capabilities. The market would clearly invest in the cheapest, quickest, most efficient way to get the transition done.”

Change the tone

Coper hopes that an outcome of the Iran war is that Australia moves beyond debating whether the country should have an energy transition, to one of how to get it done. 

And there will be plenty of time to use the crisis to change the tone of the war of words around energy.

“Oil tankers move at a snail’s pace. So even if the crisis were to be resolved today, it’s a very long time before things return to any kind of sense of normalcy. So I think that the messages around energy independence are not going to go away anytime soon, because this crisis will have a very long tail,” Coper says. 

“We’ve seen the consequences of what happens without energy independence. So hopefully it moves the conversation onto, okay, let’s get the transition done as quickly as we can. 

“What is the best way to do that? What are the policy settings? What is the messaging? You know? How do we overcome the barriers to getting that done? Ideally, that’s where the conversation is focused as a result of the crisis.”

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