South Australia eyes new transmission line to support industrial demand drawn to 100 pct renewables

• The transmission company in Australia’s most advanced renewable grid has laid out the economic case for a major new transmission line that it says is essential to support the transition beyond its target of 100 per cent net renewables, and connect major new industrial customers.

ElectraNet on Thursday released its latest regulatory filing to support the Northern Transmission project, dubbed NTx, a potential $3.1 billion project that will link Adelaide to the wind and solar rich regions to the north, and beyond if the industrial demand is there.

The regulatory filing, known as the Project Assessment Draft Report (PADR) confirms that the proposed $1.4 billion first stage between Adelaide and the mid North delivers clear market benefits.

The case is less clear, however, for the proposed second stage extension to Whyalla, only because it depends on the forecast surge in demand from new industrial loads such as data centres and green iron actually being created. If they are, then it says significant additional benefits will emerge.

ElectraNet has made much in recent months about what is says is huge interest from industrial players in tapping into the state’s green and low cost electrons, and it has predicted the state’s load could double because of that interest – from 3.3 gigawatts (GW) now to around 6.5 GW in just 15 years.

South Australia sees that outcome as further justification for its decision to lead the country – and the world – in the transition to renewables.

The state will already be the first gigawatt-scale grid to reach 100 per cent net renewables (net meaning it will still export and import to and from other states when needed) if it meets its target by the end of next year. It is already at 75 per cent renewables, with a number of new wind, solar and battery projects under construction.

ElectraNet is effectively arguing, at least in arguing for the proposed second stage, that “build it, or promise to build it, and they (the industrial loads) will come.

“South Australia is on the cusp of entering a new phase of growth that will unlock thousands of jobs and benefit the entire State. But this opportunity can’t be realised if we don’t have the infrastructure to support the energy requirements,” CEO Simon Emms said in a statement accompanying the report..

“NTx is the piece of infrastructure that brings all that together. From mining and manufacturing opportunities in the north and the west, to innovation and AI revolution in Adelaide, the Mid North and South East, NTx will benefit the entire state.

Emms says the new transmission line, rated at 275 kV, will improve affordability, reliability and sustainability.

The PADR report says that the first stage of the project from Greater Adelaide to the Mid North will cost around $1.4 billion (although it has not take into account any inflationary impacts of the Iran war) and will deliver between $356 million and $640 million in net market benefits for South Australian consumers.

This comes from relieving congestion on the existing transmission lines from the Mid North into Adelaide, allowing more renewable and battery projects to be built, less load shedding, and delivering lower wholesale prices because of it.

ElectraNet says it has looked at non-network options, including a standalone battery and a combined battery/network solution and decided they did not over a better solution.

However, it did note that the developer of the proposed large standalone battery may receive external funding in the coming months that would reduce the effective capital cost of the project.

In that case, it says, it will re-examine the project to see if can increase the overall net market benefits of the proposed new transmission line. It will do that before the next stage of the lengthy regulatory process.

ElectraNet says the second stage of NTx – between the Mid North and Whyalla – would deliver significant net market benefits as large loads from industrial activity such as mining, manufacturing and data centres to fuel the AI revolution come online. 

However, the report also makes clear that without that demand, then the additional economic benefits do not emerge.

ElectraNet is pushing for approval for the whole shebang because, it says, once built it will attract new industries. If it has to, the project can be built over two stages, and the company says is ready to re-open its application if that demand becomes firm and the second stage can’t be built before then.

The design of the route has already had several changes, with the launch pad into Adelaide changed because of the higher bushfire risk in the original site. ElectraNet says it has also identified a new corridor in the Mid north following feedback from landowners and the community over the use of high value cropping land.

“We’ve heard from people in the Mid North and that feedback has directly influenced where we are focusing our investigations,” NTx Project Director Dave Tansell said in a statement. 

“The identification of another corridor does not represent a final decision and remains subject to further investigation, engagement and assessment. We want to ensure those in the new corridor have a good opportunity to be heard and to influence how this project is assessed moving forward.”

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