Solar pushes renewables to record share of grid, coal hits new low despite highest spring demand

The share of renewables in Australia’s main grid hit new highs on Wednesday, pushing coal and overall fossil fuel shares to new lows despite the highest levels of native demand seen this spring.

Renewables usually set new production and market share records in spring because of the good conditions and mild temperatures which result in relatively low demand.

On Wednesday, the market penetration of renewables hit a new high of 75.9 per cent – significantly above the first spring record of 73 per cent set in early September. The share of wind and solar alone – variable renewables – hit a new peak of 74.6 per cent, a leap from 71.7 per cent in early October, according to data from GPE NEMlog.

The share of renewables is not just a factor of how much wind and solar can be produced, because there are multiple factors in play, including negative wholesale prices and network limits that may constrain output, and the ability of the grid to absorb that much wind and solar.

The Australian Energy Market Operator has already flagged several occasions when the “potential” share of renewables in the country’s main grid was more than 100 per cent of demand, but it has not yet got all its engineering ducks (to ensure system security) lined up to allow that to happen.

According to GPE NEMLog, the combined output of renewables hit a new peak of 23,645.2 MW at 1.05pm (AEST) on Wednesday, up significantly from the previous record of 22,177.3 MW in February this year.

The output of wind and solar also hit a new peak of 23,241 MW, also up sharply from the previous record of 21,612.6 MW in March. The output would have been higher but 2,500 MW of large scale wind and solar was curtailed at the time.

Most of the output came from the rooftops of homes and business, which also set a new record of 19,515 MW, beating the previous peak of 19,410 MW set in December last year.

Low demand was not an issue, however, given the grid also hit a new peak of spring underlying demand of 32,246 MW, surpassing the previous high of 32,145 MW set in November last year.

Despite this, the share of coal hit a new low of 22.9 per cent at 12.25pm (AEST), well done from the low of 26.5 per cent recorded in September. The share of coal and gas hit a new nadir of 23.8 per cent.