“Science under siege:” US data cuts threaten climate modelling amid a misinformation maelstrom

Australian climate scientists are warning that funding cuts to major US science agencies have serious consequences for Australia’s weather forecasting and climate modelling – with the damage compounded by a surge in climate misinformation and growing hostility towards researchers.

Giving evidence to the Senate inquiry on information integrity on climate and energy, Associate Professor Ailie Gallant from the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, said critical US data sets that underpin Australian forecasts have stopped being updated since the return of the Trump administration.

“A lot of the data we use has not been available or has not been updated,” she told senators. “This has significant consequences for everything from daily weather forecasting to seasonal outlooks that farmers rely on, all the way through to long-term climate projections.”

The Centre’s submission warns that the US cutbacks – including job losses and program closures at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – could reduce global access to satellite and sea-surface temperature data, threatening cooperation in international climate monitoring.

“Even partial restrictions or degradation in quality undermine our ability to understand Australia’s changing climate and prepare for future challenges,” Gallant said. Gaps in understanding may arrive “at a very inopportune time as global climate change accelerates,” with lost data from satellites and ground-based ocean networks impossible to replace quickly.

“Once a satellite is down, it’s down,” she said. “It takes years to build another one and put it back up.”

Misinformation feeds mistrust

The Centre’s submission links these scientific challenges to a deeper problem: the rise of climate and energy misinformation that erodes trust in Australia’s most respected weather science institutions — the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the country’s universities.

“Misinformation and disinformation directly undermine the functioning of scientific institutions and reduce the quality of public policy decisions,” the submission says.

It warns that false narratives — including attacks on scientific credibility and misrepresentation of climate uncertainties — are being amplified online and adapted from overseas disinformation campaigns.

Gallant told the committee she has been “shocked at the resurgence of science being under siege,” saying that technology has made it “much easier for mis- and disinformation to spread.”

She also revealed that she and colleagues have “frequently experienced bullying and attacks from anti-science actors,” describing it as a growing occupational hazard for climate researchers.

While public trust in Australia’s science agencies remains “moderate to high,” the Centre says it can only be maintained through bipartisan support and apolitical funding. It recommends Parliament recognise that scientific independence and open access to data are matters of national security and resilience.

The Centre also called for safeguards against political interference in the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and other independent operational agencies, and for stronger public communication to counter false narratives about climate and energy.

“Weather and science is a global effort,” Gallant told the committee. “We all contribute, but some countries are more influential than others. Defunding those programs has a significant effect on our ability to monitor what’s happening to the global climate and weather.”

The cost of uncertainty

Reduced access to international data, combined with shrinking public trust, increases uncertainty — and that uncertainty, Gallant warned, is exactly what misinformation feeds on.

“Decreasing the amount of data available increases uncertainty,” she said. “And removing those models from the global pool means we have less information to work with.”

For scientists trying to forecast floods, droughts and heatwaves in an already volatile climate, that uncertainty is more than a technical problem — it’s a threat to Australia’s preparedness and resilience.

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