Renewables keep 2030 climate targets on track, but diesel remains blot on carbon horizon

Australia is on track to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target after achieving the biggest fall in emissions since Covid in the last financial year, and even greater cuts in the year to September.

The latest greenhouse gas inventory released by the federal Labor government says emissions fell 2.2 per cent in the year to June 30 – as had been foreshadowed in the preliminary data released along with the official March figures three months ago.

More encouragingly, preliminary data shows a drop of 2.8 per cent in the year to September, which if maintained over the next five years will deliver Labor’s 2030 target of a 43 per cent cut in emissions below 2005 levels. The reductions stood at 28.5 per cent at the end of June.

Federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen underlined the fact that half of the emission cuts of nearly 10 million tonnes of Co2-equivalent in the 12 month to June came from the electricity sector, where wind, solar and battery storage is displacing coal and gas.

Other significant reductions were achieved in stationary energy, thanks partly to more efficiency and less gas use in homes, but transport emissions rose, driven mostly by the increased use of diesel in passenger vehicles.

“Renewable energy generation continues to drive emissions in the energy sector, while our reformed Safeguard Mechanism is driving investment in industrial decarbonisation and securing steady progress,” the government said in a statement.

“Electricity sector emissions decreased 3.3 per cent over the year to June 2025 due to record renewables, with strong solar and wind generation growth.”

Emissions intensity in the national grid was a record low for the June quarter at 0.55 tonnes CO2-e/Megawatt hour (MWh), and electricity emissions have fallen 30 per cent since their peak in 2009.

In his annual climate change statement delivered to parliament on Thursday, Bowen said the newly announced 2035 emission reduction targets of 62 to 70 per cent remained in reach, although they will require an acceleration, driven by the growing share of renewables in the grid, and other technology solutions.

The Climate Change Authority, which advised the government on the target, issued its own report on Thursday saying the rate of emissions reduction needs to triple to reach the 2035 target.

“The (2035) target is grounded in science, and a credible contribution to global efforts to keep warming well below 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees within reach, supporting a safer environment for future generations,” Bowen said.

“It is normal for there to be a gap between projected emissions and a target 10 years in the future. We will meet it by implementing, strengthening and building on the strong policy foundations we have laid over the past three years.

“As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves. That’s what a target is for – to drive new initiatives and work.”

Bowen also took issue with the Coalition’s decision to drop its commitment to reach net zero by 2050.

“Net zero by 2050 is the bare minimum to avoid the worst impacts of global warming,” Bowen said. “Australia reducing its emissions matters. It matters for our own future, our economy, and our standing in the world.

“Renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy. What’s good for the planet is good for your pocket. And from home batteries and rooftop solar to cleaner, cheaper-to-run cars, it’s our suburbs and regions that are leading the way.”

The CCA, meanwhile, confirmed that the electricity and energy sectors make the fastest gains on emissions reduction, and improve the prospects for other sectors of the economy to decarbonise as they electrify.

“To hit our goals, the reduction rate will have to accelerate to 18 MtCO2-e per year between now and 2030, and between 20-25 Mt CO2-e per year from now to 2035,” CCA chair Matt Kean said in a statement.

“That means speeding up approvals for clean energy projects and infrastructure to keep pace with the transition.”

“The electricity and energy sector’s …. contribution will expand as more renewable energy sources are switched on when ageing coal-fired power plants bow out.

“Fortunately, the ongoing plunge in the price of solar photovoltaics and lithium batteries – combined with government policies like the Capacity Investment Scheme and measures to strengthen electricity security – is driving fresh demand at the household, business and utility scale.

“The technological tide is overwhelming, with low-carbon generation contributing almost all the new energy generation added worldwide last year.

With the growing competitiveness of heat pumps, induction cookers, electric vehicles and other energy efficient devices, we can expect sectors of the economy beyond the power industry to lower their carbon emissions,.”

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