Renewables and hydrogen to create “eye-watering” labour demand, says report

The Barnaby Joyce-endorsed economic theory that Australia minus coal equals regional unemployment has been smashed yet again, this time by a new report that meticulously details the huge job opportunities – and challenges – ahead for the Sunshine State in the shift to renewables.

Construction Skills Queensland, a non-profit industry training and research body, used CSIRO modelling alongside some of its own to determine that up to 26,700 extra engineering construction workers could be required between now and 2050 to realise Queensland’s renewables boom, depending on the path it takes.

That’s because Queensland needs to expand its base of renewable power generating assets 27-fold by 2050 – and that’s according to the report’s most conservative of three scenarios, which roughly mirrors current state policy ambition.

The more ambitious “Export + Domestic” scenario modelled in the 120-page report, where Queensland emerges as a green hydrogen powerhouse, will require a 50-fold expansion of the state’s existing renewable power generating assets, adding an average of 6.4GW a year, every year, out to 2050.

This “meteoric transformation” of the state’s energy network will, of course, be a massively labour-hungry task, driving a parallel step-change in construction activity and directly creating an estimated 14,500 to 26,700 new jobs out to 2050.

And what that means is that, contrary to Joyce’s claim – most recently spouted from the campaign trail in the Queensland coal community of Gladstone in late April – the real employment challenge facing regions as fossil fuels exit the system will be finding enough workers to build all that wind and solar.

Robert Sobyra, CSQ’s research director, describes the challenge as “eye-watering, really …when you look at in the context of the overall workforce that currently exists.”

Sobyra says that under the most ambitious scenario modelled in the report – which, crucially, is consistent with limiting global warming to below 2°C – the annual additional amount of construction activity “just to soak up renewables” will require 25% more workers in engineering construction a year from as early as 2026.

And that’s only counting the labour directly employed on renewable projects – the report’s estimates do not include any spillovers to housing, infrastructure or renewables-adjacent assets, such as water desalination plants co-located with green hydrogen facilities.

It is therefore likely that the overall impact of the renewable transition on the construction workforce – which the report describes as “a long-term, probably permanent change” – will be materially higher than the CSQ report estimates.

Sobyra says the vast bulk of the new jobs created will be directly involved in building enough solar farms and onshore and offshore wind projects to produce enough green hydrogen for use both domestically, in heavy industry and transport, and for export.

As the report notes, these jobs will vary in skill levels and range across a variety of roles – the table below gives an idea of the sort of workforce that will be needed.

Sobyra says about 19 occupations account for about 90% of the work in renewables, and 70% of the roles will require either low or medium skill levels, making them “absolutely transferable” from the mining and resources sector.

“What’s great about this report is that it’s a fantastic story for the regions,” he told RenewEconomy.

“If we can avoid all the pitfalls we fell into with the mining boom, such as fly-in, fly-out workers, then this is a great opportunity for the regions.”

But the opportunity won’t come without some hard work and careful planning, first.

“What’s needed is just planning and lots of planning,” Sobyra says. “We need to shift policy emphasis from commitments, pledges and targets and start talking about the brass tacks.”

One of the biggest problems that needs addressing is already rearing its head, now, in the form of regional labour shortages.

Sobyra says these shortages, while exacerbated by the pandemic, are the mark of an industry that has traditionally relied too heavily on young men, a cohort that is getting smaller each year.

“If the government and industry wants this transition, we’re going to have to radically change the way we organise our construction workforce,” he told RenewEconomy.

“We’re going to have to streamline, to make productivity gains; we need to get more women in, and keep older people in the industry longer, make it more feasible for older people to stay on the tools.

“This is a very positive report, that puts into sharp relief just what an opportunity this is,” Sobyra added, “but it’s also a cautionary tale for government and industry leaders that we need to start on the solutions now.”