Rapid electrification is the best hope to meet ambitious 1.5°C climate target, new report says

The world needs to increase the present share of final energy coming from electricity by about half in just nine years if it is to meet the “35 by 35” global electrification pledge that looks likely to be the signature goal of next month’s climate summit in Turkiye, a new report finds.

Doing so, however, would keep nations on “the most ambitious climate pathways” towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and limit the risk of overshooting the Paris warming target, according to the report by Climate Resource that was funded by the Australian government.

“The growing body of evidence demonstrates that a global 35% electricity share of final energy by 2035 is a credible and feasible benchmark for the level of electrification required to align energy systems with pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C,” the report, released on the sidelines of the Pacific Pre-COP event, concludes.

The Climate Resource work builds on a special electrification report released last month by the International Energy Agency following a request by Turkiye and Australia.

Australia’s climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen is president of negotiations for COP31 as a consolation for losing out to Turkiye to host the event – with both nations working on that “35 by 35” goal.

Luke Menzel, chief executive of the Energy Efficiency Council, was part of the global Energy Now movement that backed the 35 by 35 pledge at a Pre-COP media event in Fiji on Thursday.

“At COP28 in 2023 nations took a massive step forward, globally agreed targets to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030,” Menzel said in a post on LinkedIn.

“But one key near term emissions reduction pathway was not addressed – pairing efficiency and renewables with rapid electrification so we can make the best use of those clean electrons to drive down the use of fossil fuels,” he said, explaining his backing of the COP31 goal.

“Electrification means different things to different people. Where I live in Australia it is about switching away from petrol, diesel and gas to efficient electric technologies,” he said.

“In the emerging and developing economies, it is that, but it also often improving energy access, bringing electricity to towns and villages for the first time,” Menzel added. “It is about raising living standards and economic development.”

As the IEA report noted, electricity presently supplies about 23% of final energy use, a figure understood to be where Australia also occupies.

The IEA found getting to 35% by 2035 to be “within striking distance” because it was already “cost-effective to raise electrification to around 33%” by then based on 2025 technology costs that predate the soaring costs of fossil fuels in the wake of the US-Israel war on Iran.

On stated policies, however, the IEA projected electrification would come in at “slightly less than 30%”, the Climate Resource paper noted, underscoring the need to accelerate the process.

The paper said its analysis examined Integrated Assessment Models of warming and 1.5°C Paris-aligned scenarios, and found a global electrification share of around 35% by 2035 sat “at the median of the current lowest-overshoot pathways.”

“The lowest-overshoot pathways point to the importance of both expanding renewable electricity supply and accelerating electrification across transport, buildings and industry,” the report said, in comments that echo the result of the IEA work.

Critical, though, is the need for a rapid expansion of renewable electricity capacity to lower the emissions intensity of electricity supply.

“[R]enewable expansion lowers the emissions intensity of the electricity supplied and electrification determines how much of total energy demand can increasingly be met by clean electricity,” it said. “Fossil fuel decline is in large part a consequence of renewable energy and electrification scaling together.”

The process, though has a long way to go, given the high – and lately, rising – share of global primary energy coming from fossil fuels.

As the Climate Resource paper noted, energy efficiency will rise in line with electrification given the wastage typically accompanying the direct burning of coal, oil and gas.

The electrification of transport is one economic activity primed for a rapid transition, particularly if petrol and diesel prices remain elevated. Electric vehicles have outsold petrol rivals for new car sales in Australia for the past two months in a row, and other markets such as Europe have also seen EV sales soar.

“Road transport accounts for around 20% of global final energy demand but is currently only around 2% electrified,” the Climate Resource paper said. “Historically, this has been one of the biggest constraints on overall electrification rates, given the sector’s scale.”

“As electrification begins to penetrate one of the world’s largest end-use sectors, it shows that faster growth in global electrification rates is achievable over the coming decade,” it said.

The rising share of renewable energy would serve to be a “mutually reinforcing” trend as households and businesses ditched the gas cookers and boilers, and other fossil-fuel sourced appliance for electric ones, the paper said.

Giving electrification a 2035 target, as now looks likely to be an outcome of the COP31 gathering next month in Turkiye, would set a benchmark for nations to aim for, the report said.

In his foreword to the IEA report, Bowen said the clean energy transition had “become unstoppable.”

“The global energy shock has prompted many countries to seek ways to strengthen energy security, while still delivering affordable and reliable energy,” Bowen said.

“Electrified economies, powered with clean energy, and backed by modern grids and storage, are an enduring answer,” he said.

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