NZ’s post-2020 target: Weak action for a less competitive economy

New Zealand has released its initial post-2020 target. The draft target is 30 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 (11% below 1990 levels).

New Zealand risks its competitive position by stranding its economy as the most pollution intensive in the developed world. Critically, by not doing its bit to help avoid a 2^oC increase in global temperature, New Zealand is asking others to pick up its slack and do more.

If it does not lift this initial offer to the international community New Zealand will join Canada in family of free riders by significantly reducing their emissions reductions efforts.”

Overall, The Climate Institute’s initial analysis suggests that:

+     Not a fair and ambitious contribution to avoiding 2^oC: New Zealand’s target is not a credible contribution to avoiding a 2^oC increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels. To avoid 2^oC, the global benchmark for advanced countries like New Zealand is a reduction of about 50 per cent by 2030.  If it sticks to this target much more rapid reductions will be required for it to contribute fairly to avoiding a 2^oC.

+     New Zealand risks its competitive position in the race to a zero carbon world: Based on current targets, New Zealand would be left with the most polluting economy of the advanced economies (Table 1 – emissions intensity of GDP, to allow comparison all indicators have been converted to 2025 levels). This will place New Zealand at an increasing competitive disadvantage as other nations continue to modernise and clean up their economies. (For comparison, Australia’s emissions intensity is currently around 640 t CO₂e/GDP.)

+     The target is a weakening of effort: On some metrics, the target is comparable to some of New Zealand’s international peers (see Table 1). On others the target is weaker than other advanced economies. Critically, the new 2025 target would be a significant reduction of emissions reduction effort after 2020. To meet its post-2020 target, New Zealand will need to reduce emissions at around 0.7%/year. This is less than half the rate required to achieve its 2020 target (Table 1).

Table 1: New Zealand’s target, in 2025, compared to other nations and on different base years and metrics. Note all are converted all to 2025 numbers to allow comparisons.

Erwin Jackson is deputy chief executive of The Climate Institute.