No space for Eraring, but Bowen will need more wind and solar to meet 2030 target

“Essentially, propping up Eraring is like robbing Peter to pay Paul, with other coal power stations left vulnerable,” says lead IEEFA electricity analyst Johanna Bowyer.

One of the most impacted generators would be Vales Point, which was recently bought by a Czech outfit and originally signalled it wanted to delay its planned closure from 2029 to 2032. But Bowyer says Vales Point’s capacity factor could drop as low as 9% if Eraring’s closure was delayed.

IEEFA’s assessment of the newly expanded CIS – now seeking 9 GW of storage (average four hours) and now including 23 GW of wind and solar capacity – is similar to others.

IEEFA’s Bowyer, like the analysts at Rystad Energy, says that the plans outlined by federal energy minister Chris Bowen will get renewables to around 70 per cent of the market, still short of the 82 per cent renewable share that is the current government’s target.

Bowyer says that another 13GW of new wind and solar capacity will be required to fill the gap, which means that state-based targets will be important.

She notes it is not clear if the NSW government’s existing roadmap, which aims for 12GW of new capacity by 2030 through a series of tenders already underway, will continue and be additional to the federal government’s CIS, or not.

“Our analysis (with the help of ITP Renewables’ openCEM modelling tool) shows that the preferred utility-scale renewable generation build is wind energy,” Bowyer notes.

“Daytime demand is increasingly being satisfied by customers investing in their own rooftop solar, so utility-scale investments are heavily concentrated in wind, which can also help meet night-time demand.”

Bowyer says that the Australian Energy Market Operator’s data would suggest it believes only an extra 7 GW of additional large scale renewables will e required on top of the 23 GW to hit the 82 per cent goal. She notes that the latest version of the Integrated System Plan, due on Friday, may provide a more up to date view.