“No room for doubt:” Supersized El Nino threatens to become strongest ever recorded

The El Nino weather phenomenon is set to strengthen further into 2027, and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme ‌weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organisation says.

The ‌UN weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that ‌El Nino will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time the WMO has expressed such a degree of certainty, it said.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference.

A very strong El Nino can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.

“El Nino is ‌being supersized before ‌our ⁠eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The ​planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade ⁠winds. It occurs naturally every two ‌to ​seven years and tends to last up to 12 months.

This weather pattern often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, while the west coast of South America, East Africa and the southern United States frequently experience heavy rainfall. Europe tends to be less affected.

Sample Pacific Ocean temperatures in this year’s El Nino – one of just four categorised in the ​top “very strong” bracket ‌in records dating back to 1950 – are already more than 2C above normal, the WMO said.

The event has ​already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO said El Nino is set to peak ​towards ​the end of this ​year.

Global average temperatures are often particularly high in the year following an El Nino. The year 2024, the hottest on record at around 1.6C above pre-industrial levels, followed an El Nino.

“Normally after an ‌El Nino event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures – a temporary one,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s chief of climate prediction services, told reporters, referring to 2024. “2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”

‌Saulo said the WMO is stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts.

“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate ​intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors ​like agriculture, health, energy ⁠and water resources,” she said.

Source: AAP with DPA