Junior energy minister Tim Wilson may lose his Liberal blue ribbon seat

Australia’s junior energy minister and potential heir apparent to Angus Taylor is facing the prospect of losing his seat in federal parliament, as polling shows Tim Wilson facing a catastrophic collapse in voter support.

Polling commissioned by think tank The Australia Institute predicts that Wilson could lose his Goldstein seat to independent challenger Zoe Daniel, which would be the first time the Liberal Party has lost the seat since its creation in 1984.

The poll of 855 Goldstein voters conducted in late April shows former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel securing the highest support, with 33.1 per cent of the primary vote.

This would put Daniel effectively on par with Wilson, with the assistant energy minister securing 33.0 per cent support. If the result were replicated on election day, it would represent a colossal collapse in Wilson’s vote, who had secured 52.7 per cent of the primary vote at the 2019 election.

Labor challenger Martyn Abbott received 12.6 per cent support, while the Greens were backed by 7.7 per cent of voters polled. Support for both parties is down, suggesting a significant shift in progressive voters to back Daniel.

When asked about their two-candidate preference, Zoe Daniel swept up support from the other parties to lead Wilson 62 to 38 in a two-way contest.

It would deliver a near 20 per cent swing against Wilson, a catastrophic result in the otherwise ‘blue ribbon’ Liberal seat.

The poll used two methodologies to allocate preferences between candidates, including following the preferences indicated directed by respondents, as well as following preference flows in other electorates where an independent candidate has been successful.

In each case, Daniel would defeat Wilson on the two-candidate preferred contest.

“The two-candidate-preferred results in this poll may be slightly optimistic for Ms Daniel, however, the full results and methodology are released in the interests of transparency,” The Australia Institute’s executive director Ben Oquist said.

“Allocating preferences on a historical basis using 2019 results in comparable seats (Wentworth, Warringah & Indi) produces a two-candidate-preferred result of 57-43 per cent in favour of Zoe Daniel.”

When voters were asked about their preferred outcome of a hung parliament, support was fairly evenly split between backing the re-election of the Coalition government (38.9 per cent) and the formation of a new Labor government (37.1 per cent), with more than a fifth of voters backing their local MP to decide on their behalf.

Wilson saw-off a Labor challenge to his seat at the 2019 election, retaining the seat with a 58 to 42 margin, but not without suffering an almost five per cent swing against him.

The former policy head at the Institute of Public Affairs, Wilson was elevated into the Morrison ministry last year when appointed as the assistant minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction.

As the junior minister to Angus Taylor, Wilson took charge of much of the Morrison government’s agenda around emissions reduction and clean energy policy and is seen by some as the heir-apparent to replace Taylor as energy and emissions reduction minister.

During his tenure at the IPA, the conservative think tank actively opposed much of the previous Gillard government’s climate policies, in particular the carbon price and the renewable energy target. The IPA also called for the abolition of clean energy funding agencies like ARENA and the CEFC.

Since joining the Morrison ministry, Wilson has sought to promote himself as a moderate Liberal who understands the issue of climate change. Wilson has claimed credit for the lifting of a legislative prohibition on Australian offshore wind developments.

The release of the polling coincides with the publication of an opinion piece authored by Wilson in the Australian, in which the junior energy minister decries independents as a ‘threat to democracy’.

“The party of so-called independents wants to override democracy to achieve its objectives. The Coalition wants to empower Australians to be part of the solution in building our clean industrial future together,” Wilson writes.

His challenger, Zoe Daniel, has sought to emphasise her support for stronger climate policies as part of her campaign, including a target of reducing emissions by 60 per cent by 2030 and policies to support faster uptake of electric vehicles.

Wilson is just one of several moderate Liberals facing a tough re-election contest again an independent challenger, with treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Trent Zimmerman, Dave Sharma and Jason Falinski all at risk of losing their seats.