“I’ll sign, you drill” approach to fossil fuel development has overwhelmed Safeguard Mechanism

Emissions from new coal mines and gas facilities across Queensland have “overwhelmed” the Safeguard Mechanism, an environmental group says.

The Queensland Conservation Council (QCC) analysed the first tranche of data released since Labor passed the reformed Safeguard Mechanism in 2023 and found new fossil fuel projects in the state had increased greenhouse gas emissions by 830,000 tonnes.

The federal Labor government passed the Safeguard Mechanism in 2023 to create a mechanism that would reduce emissions from large facilities generating more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2-e in a year by ratcheting up requirements over time.

Each new project is allocated a “baseline” level of emissions by the Clean Energy Regulator that is supposed to reduce over time, forcing the owner to bring down emissions either directly or by offsetting.

Under the Safeguard Mechanism, emissions in Queensland increased by nearly 400,000 tonnes in 2023-24 to reach 37.5m tonnes, making up almost a third of the state’s total emissions, according to the QCC’s analysis.

QCC Energy Strategist Clare Silcock said three new coal mines and two new gas projects have come online in the state but emissions from “existing facilities” have been steady, meaning total emissions have increased.

“It’s a real loophole that lets new entrants come online, so that overall emissions increase,” Silcock said.

The analysis also found that nearly 70%, or 26.5m tonnes, of emissions accounted for under the Safeguard Mechanism in Queensland are from coal and gas facilities, of which nearly half are fugitive methane emissions.

Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the first two decades after it is released into the atmosphere.

A United Nations-backed study using satellites to measure actual fugitive methane plumes from fossil fuel projects found in March that Glencore’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland’s Bowen Basin could be as much as eight times more than what was officially reported.

Silcock said the Safeguard Mechanism data showed major coal mining projects in Queensland had achieved significant reductions in reported fugitive emissions by changing how they report these figures – some by up to half.

“Basically, we just don’t really know what is going on with methane emissions from Queensland coal mines,” she said.

She said the situation is particularly concerning in Queensland where the state government has been talking about massively expanding fossil fuel production.

Responding to questions in state parliament in April, Minister for Natural Resources and Mines, Dale Last, tied Queensland’s future prosperity to the development of future fossil fuel developments.

“I have been saying to the gas companies in this state: ‘I’ll sign. You’ll drill’,” Last said.

The federal Coalition has also been campaigning on a promise to accelerate approvals for major fossil fuel projects, loosening environmental regulation and pledging to defund groups like the Environmental Defenders Office.

The International Energy Agency said in 2021 that limiting global heating to 1.5C as set out in the Paris agreement meant there could be no new oil, gas or coal investment beyond 2021.

Global uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s tariff regime, a growing glut of new gas and falling demand thanks to greater renewable uptake has the potential to destabilise the gas export industry, raising questions about the assumptions underpinning new projects.