Hottest average day cooks Earth on Monday, as El Nino looms

On Monday another temperature record was broken, with July 3 marking the hottest average temperature for the whole planet since measurements began in the 1970s.

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction logged an average daily air temperature on the planet’s surface of 17.01 °C, thanks to heatwaves cooking the US, China, North Africa and the Middle East, and a marine heatwave lifting ocean temperatures around the UK by 5°C.

The last record average daily temperature was in August 2016 of 16.92°C.

“This record breaking hottest day is only one of numerous records we will continue to see broken, in light of our continuing rate of greenhouse gas emissions,” says professor Kathryn Bowen, deputy director of Melbourne Climate Futures at The University of Melbourne.

“This latest news points to what we already know – that changes in our climate are going to continue to increase and consequent impacts on our health and wellbeing are central to the fallout.

“More intense and frequent extreme weather events – whether these be bushfires, floods, storms or heatwaves – have substantial and grave implications for our health and wellbeing, and those at highest risk include the young and the elderly, those with current health issues, and those at lower socio-economic levels.”

The full impact of the rising temperatures in the northern hemisphere hasn’t fully reached Australia yet, but it’s coming, says professor Steven Sherwood, laureate fellow at the ARC Centre for Climate System Science and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre.

“Over the coming years, it will as our massive oceans gradually warm up. And unfortunately, this new global record probably won’t last long.”

On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.

It is forecasting a 90 per cent probability of a moderate El Niño weather pattern arriving in the second half of 2023.

“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General professor Petteri Taalas.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Typically, El Niño causes severe droughts in Australia.

The WMO report in May, led by the UK’s Met Office with partners around the world, also said there is a 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

“This is not to say that in the next five years we would exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement because that agreement refers to long-term warming over many years. However, it is yet another wake up call, or an early warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change” said WMO Director of Climate Service professor Chris Hewitt.