Greens power play: New parliament to be a leadership test for Adam Bandt

At the start of the election campaign, Greens leader Adam Bandt told supporters in Byron Bay that it “felt like 2010” – the last time Australia experienced a “hung parliament” and when the Greens had a seat at the table in forming policy, on climate and energy in particular.

But even Bandt may be surprised at the scale of the results in 2022 poll – where the Greens have emerged as a major power broker in both houses of parliament – a status that presents both significant power and a test for Bandt’s leadership.

Bandt is claiming a mandate to push the new Labor government on climate policy, pointing to lower house seats the party is expected to win in Queensland, as well as the party’s success in growing its senate representation to a dozen.

“We have five new MPs and Senators and the Greenslide is set to grow in the coming days,” Bandt said. “People have delivered a mandate for action on climate and inequality.

“A record number of people have voted for the Greens, and we will be in the balance of power in the Senate and possibly the House. The Greens are the most powerful third party in the Parliament.”

Labor still has a good chance of securing an outright majority in the House of Representatives, which would allow Albanese to form government without the need to first negotiate an agreement with the swollen lower House crossbench of Greens and mostly ‘teal’ independents.

Even if Labor does hold a majority of seats, the numbers will remain tight and it will likely need to build strong relationships amongst the independents to provide it with some degree of flexibility and wriggle room when it comes to passing legislation through the lower House.

Managing the Senate will be more of a challenge.

Current senate counting has Labor on track to secure around 26 senators, and the Greens 12. Combined with the possible entry of progressive ACT independent David Pocock, this would provide a sufficient majority to secure the passage of legislation without the need to negotiate with the Coalition.

The Coalition appears on track to hold around 31 senate seats. Even with the prospect of a few One Nation, UAP and Jacqui Lambie aligned senators – as many as six in total – it won’t be enough to block legislation.

That means the Greens are almost certain to hold the senate balance of power in their own right. It’s a status the party last held after the 2010 election and culminated in the negotiation of the Gillard government’s carbon tax and the creation of agencies like ARENA and the CEFC.

Bandt says that while he will interpret the election result as giving the Greens a licence to demand the Labor government adopt more ambitious climate policies, he will adopt a “constructive” approach to negotiations and expects the same from Albanese.

“Voters have made it clear they want the Greens to push the Albanese government to go further and faster on climate change and inequality,” Bandt said.

“We want to work with Anthony Albanese to deliver the stable, effective, progressive government that Australians have voted for, but he will need to work constructively with the Greens and the rest of the crossbench.”

The Greens took a highly ambitious climate policy package to the election – which included a 75 per cent emissions reduction target for 2030, net zero by 2035 and an end to the use of coal for electricity generation by 2030.

Throughout the election campaign, Labor said it was not open to negotiating its climate change policies – suggesting that it would seek to implement its current 43 per cent reduction target without legislation if it cannot secure agreement for that target in the new Parliament.

But the political reality is that Labor will be compelled to negotiate the passage of any legislation, as the Greens now have significant leverage in the Senate.

The new Parliament will serve as a test of leadership for Adam Bandt – whose predecessors took differing approaches to dealing with the government of the day.

At times, the Greens have adopted principled positions on major policy questions that have resulted in the party voting against legislation that it might otherwise be expected to support.

An example is the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme proposed by Kevin Rudd. While there are clear justifications for why Greens opposed that scheme – it was a weak package negotiated between Labor and the Liberals, to the exclusion of the Greens – the Greens are still forced to explain their decision to vote against policy more than a decade later.

But the Greens have also shown itself able to embrace negotiation and compromise, including securing the ‘clean energy future package’ under the Gillard government – that created the doomed carbon tax, but also delivered a number of key clean energy funding bodies that still stand to this day, withstanding numerous Coalition attempts to abolish them.

This mixed history demonstrates why the next term of government will be a test for Bandt – can he use this moment to build a legacy of Australian climate action, or will it be another three years in the trenches of the climate wars?

Labor has made clear that it has no intention of entertaining some of the Greens’ more bullish election policies.

But Labor will need to budge on some key climate commitments to ensure it has a workable senate, and it is reasonable to expect that this would include strengthening its 2030 emissions reduction target.

Labor will face pressure from the Greens, the independent crossbenchers, and the global community to lift its target – a 43 per cent cut by 2030 – and will almost certainly need to if it has any genuine ambition to host a round of the UN climate talks.

A 50 per cent by 2030 reduction target is now likely to be the bare minimum reasonable target.

The Greens’ job will be to provide Labor with the necessary political cover to lift its target and introduce new emissions reduction policies, without providing too much fodder for the inevitable attacks from a Coalition opposition led by someone like Peter Dutton or Angus Taylor.

While the basis of the Coalition’s attacks will be absurd, the Coalition and Murdoch press have wielded them with strong effect previously and can be relied upon to do so again.

The Greens’ last outright balance of power period was ended by the election of the Abbott government and followed by nine years of climate policy wreckage. Australia can’t afford a repeat.