Graph of the Day: Australia’s untapped emission cuts

Today’s Graph of the Day is a bit of a “golden oldie”, but worth republishing in the context of the extensive report released this week by ClimateWorks into Australia’s emissions reduction targets.

The ClimateWorks study comes to a couple of important conclusions. One is that there has been no growth in greenhouse gas emissions in Australia over the last decade, despite economic growth of 31 per cent over the same period, and the second is that the country has achieved about 40 per cent of the reductions needed to meet the bipartisan 5 per cent reduction target by 2020.

A third conclusion, however, is even more potent: that Australia could achieve a 25 per cent reduction target – the one that climate scientists say is a bare minimum – just using available technologies. All it needs is a bit of effort and some policy certainty which anyone involved in renewables, energy efficiency, forestry or coal mine methane capture, can attest has been in short supply. Indeed, it would seem that policy uncertainty has been deliberately calibrated to extend the protection of interests of those who pollute.

Today’s graph illustrates the untapped potential. The red and orange is what has been and is being achieved. The white shading is what should be achieved out to 2020 on current trends, and the grey areas – a significant multiple in most industry sectors – is what could be achieved with a little bit of effort and not a heck of a lot of cost.

 The graph is actually a product of earlier research  by ClimateWorks in 2011, with some key changes. Some of the renewable energy developments once regarded as “business as usual” are now included in the potential abatement, largely as a result of the uncertainty that has put many of these developments in doubt.

Uncertainty has been the killer of many abatement projects, because they require long term market signals for corporates and investors to change long term practices. This is true of the forestry sector, which requires a carbon price signal of around $25/tonne, and the capture of fugitive gases, which also needs a carbon price signal.