Global climate crosses more dangerous tipping points, heading for ecosystem collapse

Global warming is crossing dangerous thresholds sooner than expected with the world’s coral reefs now in an almost irreversible die-off, marking what scientists describe as the first “tipping point” in climate-driven ecosystem collapse. 

The warning in the Global Tipping Points report by 160 researchers, which synthesises groundbreaking science to estimate points of no return, comes ahead of this year’s COP30 climate summit, the annual gathering of nations to combat human-induced climate change, being held at the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil in November.

That same rainforest system is now at risk of collapsing once the average global temperature warms beyond just 1.5 degrees Celsius, based on deforestation rates, the report said, revising down the estimated threshold for the Amazon. 

Also of concern if temperatures keep rising is the threat of disruption to the major ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which helps to ensure mild winters in northern Europe.

“Change is happening fast now, tragically, in parts of the climate, the biosphere,” said environmental scientist Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, who is the lead author of the report.

Lenton noted positive signs when it came to phasing out the fossil fuels most responsible for climate change. 

Renewables, for example, accounted for more electricity generation than coal this year for the first time, according to data from the nonprofit think tank Ember.

“Nobody wants to be just traumatised and disempowered,” Lenton said. 

“We still have some agency.”

The scientists implored countries at COP30 to work toward bringing down climate-warming carbon emissions.

Scientists have been surprised by how quickly changes are unfolding in nature, with average global temperatures already having warmed by 1.3 to 1.4C above the pre-industrial average, according to data from UN and EU science agencies.

The last two years were earth’s warmest on record, with marine heatwaves that stressed 84 per cent of the world’s reefs to the point of bleaching and, in some cases, death. Coral reefs sustain about a quarter of marine life.

For corals to recover, the world would need to drastically ramp up climate action to reverse temperatures back down to just one degree above the pre-industrial average, the scientists suggested.

“The new report makes clear that each year there is an increase in the scope and magnitude of the negative impacts of climate change,” said Pep Canadell, a senior scientist at Australia’s CSIRO Climate Science Centre.

The world is currently on track for about 3.1C of warming in this century, based on national policies.

To hear a recent interview with Pep Canadell on Renew Economy’s Energy Insiders podcast, please click here: Time to go “full sail” on decarbonisation | Energy Insiders