Germany to reach more than 30% renewable power by 2015

Renewables International

Every year, the four German transmission service operators (TSO) commission a couple of studies analyzing different aspects of the electricity market. The results are then used by the TSOs to calculate the renewable energy surcharge (“EEG-Umlage”) paid by electricity customers to fund renewable electricity production under the Renewable Energy Act.

This year, the Leipziger Institut für Energie, a spin-off of the Technical University of Hamburg-Harburg, analyzed how much renewable energy capacity will be added next year and how much electricity will be generated by renewables in total. Their resulting forecast comes in the form of a “trend scenario” portraying a likely development, as well as an upper and lower case scenario that provide a plausible range. You can read the entire forecast here (in German).

The table below shows the results for the mayor RE technologies deployed in Germany. The values represent net-capacity additions, so capacity reductions due to replacing of old equipment (repowering) is already deducted. You may wonder what’s happening with the lower case for offshore wind power (*), which is actually the highest value. That’s not a typo, but the result of possible grid connection delays happening in 2014 that would result in higher additions in 2015.

According to this forecast, PV is likely to miss its growth corridor of roughly 2,500 MW under the EEG (2014). At the same time, onshore wind power is projected to surpass its growth corridor of 2,500 MW. The biomass capacity additions are mainly driven by expansions of existing facilities; additions of new biomass plants are in the range of only 40-85 MW, almost a stagnation of the biomass power market.

How much electricity will be added in 2014-2015? 

The forecast also includes an outlook on how much electricity will be fed into the grid from all renewables build under the EEG (see chart below). Between 2013 and 2015, an increase of roughly 30-35 TWh is predicted, mainly wind power.

These are, however, not the numbers for total renewable electricity generation. They do not include things like conventional hydropower, biowaste incineration, or RE power directly consumed by prosumers. As a rule of thumb, roughly 25 TWh have to be added on top of these numbers to get a value of total RE generation. This would put us at about 185 TWh at the end of 2015. Depending on how domestic demand develops, this should translate into a 31-32% RE share of gross domestic electricity demand. It would not only be a significant increase over the 25.3% share in 2013, but also a doubling of non-hydro renewables since 2010.

While we often focus on problems, challenges and conflicts of the Energiewende here in Germany, we should not forget to pause once in a while and appreciate the fact that, for the moment, it’s still in full swing.

Source: Renewables International. Reproduced with permission.