Fusion power plant possible by 2045 with massive effort, says science academy

It should be possible to realise Germany’s ambition to launch a fusion power plant in less than 20 years, but this will require a lot of effort and money, the country’s science academies said.

“Germany can build a fusion power plant by 2045 – provided there is a massive acceleration of the project,” said the National Academy of Science and Engineering (Acatech) in a research and innovation roadmap.

The country would have to hugely step up training of skilled personnel, industrialise component manufacturing, overcome key technology hurdles, and introduce a supportive legal framework, the report said.

Otherwise, the development of a viable fusion plant in the country could only be achieved significantly later, the science academy concluded. 

Acatech questioned whether Germany can go it alone, given the anticipated costs that such a project would likely involve.

“The estimated investment required to build the infrastructure for magnetic fusion, laser fusion, as well as materials and fuel runs into the tens of billions; in this context, international cooperation may be essential,” the report said.

The German government has identified nuclear fusion as one of six key technologies through which the country aims to regain its position at the forefront of global innovation. It wants to build the world’s first nuclear fusion reactor in the country, and recently has committed more than 2 billion euros to the effort. 

Nuclear fusion holds the promise of delivering climate-friendly, safe, and practically unlimited energy. But even if it proves successful, it will likely come too late to play a major role in reaching climate neutrality by mid-century. It is also expected to remain costly, which could severely limit its use in a world powered mainly by renewables. 

The academy’s roadmap establishes intermediate steps and timescales by working backwards from a finished fusion power plant.

It is meant to serve as a basis for pending decisions on how to implement the government strategy. In particular, the government needs to decide whether to prioritise speed, costs, or risk reduction, the report said. 

Opting for parallel competitive developments would represent the fastest path to a fusion power plant, but would require large resources and high technological risks, according to Acatech.

In contrast, conducting “careful basic research” first would reduce costs and risks, but would be more time-consuming. A third approach would combine collaborative research with competition to strike a balance between costs, risks and speed.

Germany has a “very good starting point for successful innovations in fusion energy with high economic potential”, the experts conclude.

“There are numerous technological challenges on the path to a fusion power plant. From a scientific perspective, however, there is no reason why fusion cannot succeed,” said Robert Schlögl, president of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and an Acatech member.

Clean Energy Wire. Reproduced with permission.