From cars to coastal shipping, we can electrify almost everything, according to Electrification Staircase

Many readers will have heard of the Hydrogen Ladder, the arresting graphic that helped puncture much of the hydrogen hype of a few years ago, and focus the technology on what it might really be able to do in the short term.

Now, some of the same authors of that ladder have produced an electric equivalent, the Electrification Staircase, which takes a deep dive into what can and should be electrified soon, and what remains speculative, even in the 1940s.

One of those authors, former Bloomberg New Energy Finance founder and now analyst and consultant Michael Liebreich, says his big take from the new ladder, finally published this month after being first presented in December, is that we can “electrify almost everything.”

“Once you get reasonably clean power, electrification represents the cheapest way to deliver incremental decarbonization,” Liebreich writes on his substack.

“And electrification is the only real way to insulate yourself from the current oil and gas shock – and the next one, and the one after, ad infinitum. China gets it. Consumers flocking to buy EVs get it.”

Australia is starting on its electrification journey, focused on home appliances, electric vehicles and industry, both as a means to reduce the country’s dependence on expensive fossil gas, and to cut emissions.

Australia leads the world in the take up of rooftop solar and home batteries, but it trails much of the western world in electric vehicles, although adoption is accelerating, thanks to the fossil fuel supply crisis caused by events in the Middle East.

Some state and territory governments have issued new laws to phase out gas and ban new connections for homes. Australia is well placed to electrify, given its vast wind and solar resources, and green iron and green steel is seen as one of the most likely opportunities.

“It will not always be an easy road,” Liebreich writes. “Some things you can electrify right now and save money.”

In this, he includes cars, trains, trams, last mile delivery trucks, and heating for new homes, and commercial buildings. The next tier include regional trucking, vans and light trucks, domestic cooking, retrofit heating in homes, breweries, textiles, and secondary steels.

Commercial now in some places, but not all, are coaches, ferries, long haul trucking, mining equipment, industrial good drying, glass melting and ceramic kilns.

Others are further away.

“For others, the technology exists, journalists and activists make it sound easy, but it’s not ready for prime time,” Leibreich adds.

In this list are river shipping, short haul aviation, chemical process heaters, cement calcination, and steam crackers, while a bit further away is coastal shipping, primary steel production and hydrogen electrolysis. Furthest away, likely in the 2040s, is medium aviation, and blue-water shipping.

“We called it a Staircase to communicate the time dimension,” Liebreich writes. “You don’t have to do everything at once, just start on step one and keep going. A few folks have told us it should be called an escalator – well, maybe we’ll rename it once the world gets to 50% electrification!”

The authors of the Electrification Staircase also include Adrian Hiel, the director of the Electrification Alliance, as well as Dr Silvia Madeddu, Thomas Butler, and William Drake.

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