Failed bid? Australia misses out on a massive trade fair, but still has critical role to play at COP31

After days of speculation, federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen has now publicly confirmed that Australia has proposed a joint Presidency format for COP31 – abandoning its hopes of hosting the two-week forum in Adelaide next year.

In a statement from Brazil, Bowen said that while negotiations would continue over the next 24 hours, Australia has proposed and supports “a model” that includes a Pre-COP pledging event in a Pacific nation next year, followed by COP31 hosted in Türkiye but presided over by Australia “for the purposes of the negotiations”.

If this arrangement goes ahead, which remains to be seen, it would be an unprecedented sharing agreement between Australia and Türkiye, building on the year-long discussions between the two countries.

Bowen said “significant concessions are what’s required when you try to find consensus” within the UNFCCC’s hosting selection process. While he conceded that it’s “not the process that I would have designed”, it is the process he has had to work with.

After spending $7 million already on preparations for Adelaide to host what Bowen has previously described as the “world’s biggest clean energy trade fair”, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment to the Australian climate community, industry, and many Adelaide residents.

For some, this news will not just be disappointing, but may even be seen as a failure. There will likely be calls that “we didn’t try hard enough” and perhaps even that Australia is betraying the promises we made to our Pacific partners, by not pushing through with its hosting bid.

But as someone who’s tracked these negotiations for more than a decade, I am immensely proud of this result, and how the Australian government has sought to balance its own interests with the broader integrity of the UN climate negotiations.

If successful, a Pre-COP event in the Pacific would not only be unprecedented but could generate significant financial support for the Pacific’s Resilience Fund.

It would also shine a critical light on the region’s climate vulnerabilities, resilience opportunities, and collaborative potential — perhaps even more so than a single event in Adelaide would have done.

While it may admittedly mean a reduced role for Pacific leaders to co-lead the formal UN climate talks, this pre-COP event may also represent an unencumbered opportunity for the Pacific to lead independently, without having to compromise with Australia.

If considered in addition to Vanuatu’s co-hosting of the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation event with Colombia next year, these woud be two major global events where Pacific countries will be able to highlight their climate concerns on the global stage.

It would also remain a critical opportunity and responsibility for Australia to put up its hand and take the reins of negotiations at COP31 next year.

Considering just how challenging global climate politics is right now this is no small task. Just look at Canada’s balancing act at the G7 this year, or South Africa’s challenges even getting world leaders to attend the G20 this weekend.

With potentially difficult elections to come in the next year across Chile, Colombia and Brazil, this task could become even more complex. To take on responsibility for this process, and facilitate the next stage of the “transition away from fossil fuels” is a big responsibility, and one that we certainly didn’t need to volunteer for.

However, shaping these negotiations will still give Australia the chance to put our critical energy transition challenges on the global stage.

We may not be able to host a trade fair in Australia’s most renewable powered state, but we would still be able to put Australia’s green export opportunity on the global agenda, and have the best seat in the house to shape the next steps of the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.

We can still shape global decisions on batteries, grids and renewable energy opportunities, but we can now do so without the added logistical challenges of hosting in Adelaide on such a short runway.

What’s more, we may be able to do all this, without the political noise of those questioning the costs of hosting, or the carbon footprints of anyone who flew in to attend.

That’s why I believe Australia should be proud of this result.

Even as today’s news comes as a bitter disappointment, we should still be proud as Aussies for the way we’ve had a go, and the dignified resolution we’ve proposed.

Even if the world’s climate community won’t see the remarkable energy transition underway in Australia next year, we may still retain the opportunity, and responsibility, to shape the next stage of global climate negotiations.

This time, we’ll be working not only with our partners in the Pacific, but our new partners in Türkiye, to present our common interests to the world, at a fraction of the political and capital cost.